War Report: International news summaries(Bloomberg, CNN, BBC, SVT)

Visits: 2250

Monday 28th February 5th day of war:

Bloomberg:-Sanctions have not affected either energy or health care stocks as feared. Banks appear to be hit the most. Airlines may also take a hit —-many Russian planes are leased from the outside—Swift system can be circumvented if producers/buyers move over to e mail system–and of course not all banks are covered by the sanctions. Medium term inflation looks to be a problem but experts say that this ought not to cause interest rate hikes because these are designed to curb consumption related inflation whereas the coming inflation is supply related. Ruble tumbled and was frozen by Russian central bank at 8% but looks to have gone down ca 30%+. Jane Foley, a banker claimed that the Ruble market has ben artificially restricted and when the Moscow stock market opens there will be more pressure. The Ruble is worth one quarter of its value since the Crimean War. BP “selling”(who is going to buy) Gasprom shares 20%. One expert last night on Bloomberg called Russian shares “junk” Gas prices up 36% oil 5%. Markets are expected to be very volatile over next weeks. China might bail the Russians out but experts say they might try to “leverage” the situation–if they do not step up their options become severely limited—Russian interest rates up from 9.5 to 20% foreign investors stopped from selling their Russian investments. Moscow stock exchange closed today–Ericsson to suspend all deliveries to Russia. America releases 70 million barrels of oil from its oil reserves. Van der Leyen yesterday claimed that Russian central bank would not be able to access the Russian “war chest” of 600 billion dollars. The head of the central bank confirmed today that there have been no interventions in the financial market today. Pierre Andurand argues that oil prices were on the way up anyway because of “demand destruction”(switching to green energy)

Wednesday 2nd march 7th day of war)

Bloomberg Wednesday: The impact of the crisis looks like it is going to be stagflationary and not inflationary. It looks like one of the largest Russian banks Sberbank is going to technically default on withdrawals. It is refusing to pay back foreign withdrawals but will deposit them into an account in Russia which these foreigners cannot access. For the foreign investors this is of course a default but someone somewhere in international finance will need to make a decision. If this is deemed more than a technical default the bank is finished. Gasproms company that financed Nordpol 2 has been put into bankruptcy: 100 staff fired.The pain threshhold for oil is 120 dollars. Prices are going up because Russia has reduced the price of its oil but noone is buying and turning to other suppliers who are taking advantage of the war and raising their prices. Commodity prices such as wheat are rising and will likely stay high because the price of fertiliser has increased significantly(someone else taking advantage of the war) Many international companies are cutting ties to Russia even though the sanctions have not yet reached this level. UN diplomats walked out of a speech Lavrov was giving to the UN. CNN have addressed the question of how to deal with Putin and have decided on not treating him as a politician but as a corrupt gangster. A businessman Bill Browder who has played a key role in exposing the corruption of Putin has lived under threat of death for many years. His lawyer was arrested and killed in prison. Browder claims that Putin is not a politician but a criminal wearing a political disguise. According to him Putin invaded Ukraine in order to deflect attention from his growing unpopularity. Tom Bergis, a journalist from the Financial Times who has written a book on Kleptocracy, agrees with this assessment. Perhaps the walk out of the diplomats in the UN is an expression of this new attitude. Certainly the refusal to respond to his nuclear threat is a different approach. Many believe that Putins days are numbered. The Moscow stock market is still closed– never been closed for this period since 1998. China used the term “war” for the first time yesterday to describe what is happening in Ukraine–today they are reported to have been concerned about the Ukrainians and are talking to government officials. “Peace” talks today. BBC reporting a missile hitting a nuclear waste storage facility—Ukraine has appealed for help to protect these sites. In a speech by Ukraine rep in UN it was stated that war crimes hearings are going to open March 7-8. We all remember the chemical weapons attacks on Aleppo and civilians being shot as they run out of the city to avoid the chemicals( BBC interview—The weapons were used by Assad) This interviewee pointed out how USA claimed this was a red line in the sand and then did nothing about it. He claimed that this is a seal of approval for Putin to use these weapons. Germany predicts 5% inflation for this year(Bloomberg)–(Swedish rapport SV1–Gasprom’s shares in trading offshore has lost 93% of its value!! Sberbank lost 90% of its value offshore!!)

Bloomberg reports that Shell bought some crude today to try and stabilise the price?? Their problem, now is that refineries are either refusing to refine Russian crude or charging very high prices. Immediately after this report CNN showed a white house reporter saying that specific sanctions on oil are next in line for implementation if nothing changes in Ukraine. SVT reported Russia infringed Swedish air space

BBC(Interview with leader of demonstrators) Protests continue in 50 cities demonstrators arrested almost every day in St Petersberg. Russia is clamping down on news spread—reducing the speed of internet so text can be read but pictures cannot be seen on Youtube, instagram etc. Thousands of people arrested : most are fined 300 dollars some go to detention centres for 30 days and only three more serious criminal charges for extremism.

BBC Vote in UN 35 abstentions 5 against overwhelming condemnation of Russian invasion and condemnation of the threat of nuclear consequences: resolution also demands troop withdrawal

CNN 2000 civilians killed so far(Ukraine estimate):– school nr 17, university, and gas pipeline(close to the railway station where families were waiting to evacuate) hit by missiles today. Kremlin claimed from the beginning and are still claiming today that civilians are not being targeted by their precision munitions.

Bloomberg:- Gasprom and Sberbank have frozen assets in Norwegian trillion dollar wealth fund with 9000 stocks. US:–Stock losses from last days recouped today even tech stocks up–Ford up over 8%—– (J Powell of the Fed promised 25 basis points rise in March instead of 50)

SVT two independent Russian media channels in Russia stopped from broadcasting today

Thursday 3rd March 8th day of war

SVT (Nyhetsmorgon) Irene from Rivne(a Swedish speaker) interviewed : “The whole area was bombed and the ambulance could not come to the scene because they bombed the ambulance!” Rolf–“Civilians are being targeted indiscriminately–this is terrorist bombing”

BBC:- protesters arrested– violence was used by the police in several cities last night. Loudspeakers warning people from congregating in groups are also being used

CNN Video footage of Russian troops looting a safe from a Ukrainian bank. Zelinsky video: “The morale of the Russian troops is low” “Many captured Russians claim they do not know why they are in Ukraine”. Ukrainian civilians lying in front of military vehicles.

Bloomberg: “Australian business executive: “If you are making money from Russia at the moment it is blood money” Neither CNN or Bloomberg are following Lavrovs press conference live. Both channels say that if there is anything noteworthy said this will be reported later.

Bloomberg Interview on the theme of – Putin does not care about sanctions, how are we going to stop someone who is not looking for an “off-ramp”–“We are no longer talking about smart sanctions but something more far reaching. The sanctions are designed to create the domestic conditions necessary to remove Putin. Demonstrations are occurring all over Russia and we have barely got started. You can get arrested in Russia for putting flowers outside the Ukrainian embassy.”

Bloomberg, Tom Keane: “The biggest shock for me was to see the Swiss abandon neutrality”–Anthony Blinken “President Putin has grossly miscalculated”

Euro-dollar negative for 4 straight days–oil price up for 4 straight days.. Deutsche Bank—“significant statistical correlation?”.

Russian “uninvestable” stocks cut from MSCI, FTSE AND RUSSELL indexes

Luxury yacht seized near Marseille–Another oligarchs luxury yacht seized in Hamberg. Toyota Nissan Honda looking to retreat/ review Russian involvement. Macron -Putin telephone call:– Putin claims he has not achieved his goals in the Ukraine yet. Rebuked Macron for trying to “win time” with negotiations. Estonian ship sunk near Odessa–no further info. Russian strikes go into their second week.

Bloomberg: Macron told Putin in a 90 minute phone call that the denazification goal was built on a lie. An aide to Macron is reported to have said “The worst is yet to come”

Ruble deep in “junk zone”(Bloomberg) Germany(Economic minister) says it will not place an embargo on Gas and oil for risk of social discontent. Bloomberg points out that on the micro level no company dares to touch Russian commodities because of the “damage to their reputation”. China buys US corn and Soyabeans!

CNN :- Zelinsky video.”They are ten times the number of us but in terms of their goals they are ten times smaller than us.We are fighting for the freedom of our children. They want to destroy something we want to defend something”( Is this the miscalculation of Putin–an ethical miscalculation?) Indian and Chines casualties when shell hit university yesterday. JP Morgan–Russia may be unable to pay back its debts.

Friday 4th March 9th day of war

STV4 Facebook and social media are now blocked in Russia: previously one could read text but see no pictures because the speed of internet was slowed down

CNN 16000 volunteer fighters on the way to Ukraine(Zelinsky) Nuclear reactors in one of the Southern reactors have shut down because tanks with heat sensors fired upon the complex(the largest nuclear power plant in Europe). The fire has been put out and radiation levels are normal. Russian Tycoon M Khodorsvky spent 10 years in prison because of trumped up charges claims that Putin is unbalanced and believes he will be replaced but it might take a year or two. Putin believes that those who try to talk and negotiate are weak and he will continue to do what he wishes until he is stopped.Another apartment building hit by missiles last night(recorded on video)—possible war crime. Russia have several times claimed that they are not targeting civilian targets and that they are using precision munitions. Several schools have been hit. All the civilian infrastructure targeted is being recorded and will be used in evidence in coming investigations. Australian retired General warned that this would be a deliberate strategy because it was used with “success” in Aleppo. Putin has a timetable related to the pressure upon him at home—the war is not popular with a large segment of the Russian population–the longer the war goes on the larger this segment grows.

Bloomberg Nuclear plant attack and occupation raised tensions in the money market today. Moscow stock exchange still closed and will remain so until the 8th March. First 5million dollar foreign payment on coupons made yesterday. Only two rate rises predicted for US this year.

Euronews March 16th is a Big repayment day for Russian national debt. Cyberattacks by Russia may occur using “affiliate actors” attacking energy, finance, defence, businesses that are part of the sanctions effort.

Bloomberg headline “Ordinary Russians using bitcoin as a lifeline” Belarusian troops are resisting the “illegal” orders from the “illegal president” of Belarus. The leader of the opposition in Belarus claimed many Belarusians who are members of the opposition army are fighting on the side of the Ukrainians. She urged those who are being ordered to Ukraine to defect and join the opposition army in Ukraine. Record discount for Russian oil—no bidders. Dockworkers in UK refused to unload Russian gas tanker which has now left the port. Bloomberg headline: Dock workers around the world refusing to unload even though there are no sanctions on the energy sector yet. Stoltenberg: Georgia and Bosnia at risk if Odessa falls. Tom Keane: we remember the huge number of bodies sent home to Russia from Georgia. Is he going to revisit this experience? Russia predicted decline of GDP to levels of 1998.

TT

 dag kl 15:13av Amanda Hällsten

Sverige kan räkna med hjälp från Storbritannien om Sverige skulle utsättas för ryska aggressiva handlingar.

Det lovar den brittiske försvarsministern Ben Wallace.

– En markering från Storbritanniens sida som vi är glada för, säger försvarsminister Peter Hultqvist (S).

Det vore obegripligt om inte Storbritannien hjälpte till om Ryssland i en framtid skulle utsätta Sverige för en aggression, säger den brittiske försvarsministern Ben Wallace under en gemensam pressträff i Köpenhamn tillsammans Danmarks försvarsminister Morten Bødskov och Peter Hultqvist.

Läs TT:s artikel här: Britterna lovar hjälpa Sverige militärt.

Both Sweden and the UK together with 8 other countries are part of the Joint Expeditionary Force formed in 2014. The UK defence minister promised the Swedish defence minister at a meeting in Denmark today military assistance in case of Russian aggression. “It would be inconceivable not to defend Sweden in the face of Russian aggression”(Wallace)

BBC 20,000 Russian artists demanding end to war

Bloomberg Dale Buckner Global Guardian–served in Iraq “Even if Russia takes Kiev it is insurgence that is the problem —it is costly and Russia cant afford it.” Dale runs an organisation with people in Ukraine. Jay Newman says that the Russian national debt is worthless. Foreign coupon bond holders did not receive payment on Mar 2—Interesting! Is this the beginning of the end for many of Russian banks and of course there will be knock on effects for European banks, e.g. Deutsche Bank? Sell off of Chines stocks continues.

Saturday 5th March 10th day of war

DN: convoy heading towards Kiev has been stopped and a bridge essential to the advance has been blown up. The convoy appears to have been attacked. Source UK MOD, CNN

Bloomberg Larry Summers:- Sanctions have a delivered a quick and severe jolt to the Russian economy. The whole world has mobilised against Russia more quickly and with more unity than anyone expected. President Biden needs to make the transition that Rooseveldt from president of the new deal to president that wins the war: Biden that is, needs to transition from being president of the middle class to president of the defender of democracy. A jet flew from St Petersberg to pick up a dozen expelled diplomats(spies?) from Washington. Russia failed to honour a cease fire in a city where the people have been shelled and bombarded: no water no food. This is what they did in Aleppo.

SVT Hans Blix: “The attack on the nuclear reactor is a breach of the Geneva convention”

CNN Reports that Putin has claimed publicly that the imposition of sanctions are a declaration of war. Social media responses to this includes denying that it is a declaration of war and claiming that what Putin is witnessing is a special financial operation designed to save the Russian people from Nazi’s.

Sunday 6th March 11th day of war

BBC China is buying Russian wheat and energy, but the Chinese banks have not as yet linked up with Russian banks BBC World has ceased sending today.

CNN Reliable Sources Journalism is now criminalised in Russia with penalties of 15 years in prison. Many Russian independent journalists claim that “Russian Journalism is now dead”. Broadcasters that carried on broadcasting during Soviet times have shut up shop.

BBC 3500 demonstrators in Moscow St Petersberg and Siberia arrested today according to TASS–arrests are becoming progressively more violent.

Bloomberg: American Express suspend operations

CNN report that 4300 people arrested today for demonstrating TIKTOK suspending operations Children with cancer evacuated to Poland because of the risk of the shelling of hospitals Putin is sending 1000 mercenaries to Ukraine–what for? Column on the road to Kiev is still not moving. US considering oil embargo.

Monday 7th March 12 th day of war

SVT: Shelling from the sea attacking Donetsk communications. Cease fire in several towns to allow humanitarian help after two failed attempts.

CNN: Ukraine official opposes any business dealings with Russia–“Trading with Russia is making “blood-money” 700 Indian students trapped asked to be evacuated.

BBC: fertiliser shortage because 25% of the key constituents come from Russia–Looking for alternative sources but food prices may go up

Sky: Blinken speaking in Vilnius Lithuania. Headlines in English newspapers mothers and children running for their lives as shelling continues in cities where cease fire was agreed

Euronews: Rights groups and Russian authorities confirm that over 10,000 people have been arrested over last few days Russian and Belarusian gymnasts banned from future competitions after Russian gymnast wore the Z symbol supporting the war against Ukraine. The gymnast was receiving the bronze model and stood on the same podium as the Ukrainian who won the gold. Russian defence ministry has warned that those countries providing planes to Ukraine will be considered part of the conflict.

Bloomberg Gold hits 2000 dollars. US coordinating with EU over oil embargo discussions Oil prices up to just below 130 dollars almost 140 dollars in Asian session. Blinken nuclear deal with Iran close. China urges world not to put “fuel on the fire”. UK sanctions 11 oligarchs – R Abrahomivic not on oligarch list– Sanctions list(11 individuals) includes 100 individuals. German factory orders beat expectations(headline) Bitcoin price going down. Oil shock becoming a nightmare for Indian central bank(risk of persistent inflation)(headline) Russia is honouring their bond payment commitments “for now”. Big bond payment due March 16th. Rosneft had a bond due yesterday no payment as yet Gazprom has a 1.3billion dollar bond due today. US may go it alone on oil embargo(headline). Russia decrees that bonds can be paid in rubles!!! China affirms Russia ties and accuses US of building a Pacific Nato(headline)

CNN Kazakstan(Russian ally) allowed an anti War demonstration of over 2000 people

Bloomberg Eurostox 50 Cac 40 enter bear market territory. A lot of shock is focused on equities and not so much effect on the credit market as yet(Giiles Moec AXA chief economist)–so no risk of stagflation yet. GPW Head of political risk claims Russian default on debt is likely. Morgan Stanley and Citi analysts see perfect storm for equities forming(headline). David Herro Harris associates–Italian and French banks have direct exposure to Russian risk but banks have been accumulating capital for over 10 years so this is not like the 07, 08, 09 playbook. EU financials, e.g. Lloyds bank are high quality and attractive investment possibilities. We have zero Russian exposure–we have regarded them as uninvestable for a long time. If you have a Russian debt you are in trouble. This is going to make it very difficult to wage war. The economy is a relatively small economy. Dont look at todays price of oil as “Normal” this is a special situation(Interview) Rupee sinks to record lows(headline). List of companies not doing business with Russia is growing. New package of sanctions by Friday? Von der Leyen suggestion today. Ian Bremmer:- author “Does top down surveillance technology facilitate authoritarianism?” Risk of deglobalisation of the world economy. In the next 12 months the numbers of people who starve is going to increase –two top grain producers at war with each other—the global middle class is unwinding. As a consequence there will be increased inequality. What does the post Putin world look like for Russian—20years or 20 days—-likelihood of removing him is extremely low until it suddenly happens. The average Russian believes what the media are putting out but this can change if people dont get their wages and 10,000 soldiers dead.(Interview). Russian plan to pay debt in Rubles amounts to a default. The cost of insuring Russias debt went up to a record high upon this news. Kiel institute: Russia hurt most by sanctions (-11.8% exports–US -3.4% EU -2.8%). Boris Johnson said in a call to Biden that more needs to be done on sanctions–Russia swaps calculate that there is now a 80% chance of a Russian default on payments. Russia now backing from demands for complete surrender to recognition that Crimea and break out republics belong to Russia. Record voting turn out for elections in S Korea. Oil prices and futures coming down after Russian climb down “Russian special military operation is now being seen as a failure” Lisa Abramoviscz. The sanctions so far announced have had “massive massive” consequences–Jonathan Ferro– “a ton of damage on Putins economy” “is there a forming global moral obligation to refuse to trade with Putins Russia”? Germany is against the push to embargo oil and gas. EU energy needs cannot be secured at the moment. Last time there was a risk of Russian default was 1998. Russia need more dollars to meet payment demands. US meeting with Venezuela to restore their oil.

Damion Sassower Bloomberg Intelligence.Russia and China ” a marriage of convenience” there are seeds of discontent in this relation The Russian bonds are worthless–the Ruble is not really a currency if no one knows what it is worth.

Bloomberg : Russians shelled a neutron generator at a University. Radioactive material safe–no radiation leak Ruble at record lows offshore at news of moral ban on oil Even the small amounts of oil that have been sold have been shunned by refiners. Hanbury’s Hedge fund has marked down Russian assets to “zero or close to zero”

Euronews The hearings of the Genocide accusations against Russia opened today No representatives from Russia were present. The court can call for a stop to hostilities and submit their judgement to the UN security council which as we know will be vetoed. Russia’s problems however are becoming increasingly moral as businesses are unanimous in their judgement that Russia is “uninvestable”

Bloomberg: Russian gold de facto banned from London Market

CNN latest poll Finland :–53% for Nato 28% against 19% uncertain. Finlands Foreign minister wishes for the Ukraine issue to be resolved before any definite decision is made. The matter is under discussion by the political parties. 5000 arrests in 147 cities and 13,000 total number of arrests. Law against describing Russian special military operation as a war–people stopped in streets and phones taken and checked for messages using banned words. Red cross implies that Russians are playing games with the humanitarian corridors leading the Ukrainian delegation to believe they are going westward and then claiming that the corridor heads eastward into Russia–knowing full well no Ukrainians would agree to “sanctuary” in Russia. Macron calls out this “hypocrisy”. Evidence filmed of tanks in working condition abandoned by the Russians– Nick Paton Walsh–when the Russian run out of ideas they criminally deliberately shell the civilian population again and again but that is not working since it is uniting the military defence and making it more determined–Aleppo was bombed for 4 years with continuous shelling–Cedric Leighton–military analyst says we seem to be heading down this route but it is doubtful the West will stand by and watch such a scenario. In such circumstances a no fly zone might be set up. Ukraines EU membership to be discussed in the next few days.

Bloomberg Gary Locke former ambassador to China—-Economic turmoil not good for its business but could benefit from Russian commodities—but the risk is sanctions. Gazprom have paid 1.3 billion dollar debt in dollars.

Sky news Navalny contributed names to Canadas list of sanctioned individuals. General McMaster. If we allow Putin to do what he did in Syria we will see more than a million people killed. The Russian army does not know how to fight_ all it can do is shell and bomb unless they are stopped. Stop talking about giving the Ukrainians planes: give them the planes. Give them rocket systems and drones as well. Shut the oil and gas off and live with the discomfort. Tell Putin if he does not stop we will install a no fly zone and a marine no go zone at sea as well.

Bloomberg Chinese stocks in the US at a 5 year low. United airlines down 15% today. Bitcoin down. Biden to sign an executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies. Coinbase stopped a large number of Russian investors from investing. US Congress has bipartisan support for oil and other tariff embargo:- will pass a bill and present to Biden for signature.

Bloomberg: Many investors are “in cash” waiting for investment opportunities—when will they take the plunge? Stagflation debate continues–is this an artificial environment with inflation caused by supply and not consumption problems? Russia surpasses Iran as the worlds most sanctioned country. EU aims to cut Russia gas dependence by 80% this year.

CNN Pentagon official(Admiral John Kirby)Families were targeted in agreed upon humanitarian corridors: . The 350 million dollars approved by Biden a week ago is already in the Ukraine. 100,000 US troops currently in Europe This adds to the 1.9 million men Europe has.

Tuesday 8th March 13th day of war

Bloomberg Russia threatens to cut off gas via pipeline. This might be a bluff to raise oil and gas prices and generate more income.

Bloomberg: The markets are designed to move money from impatient investors to patient investors. Ruble 20% lower on offshore markets–biggest drop since 1998. China stocks down 2% New York( Lale Akona): ECB will not hike interest rates this year. Russian economy? Economic leverage is quite low the Russian economy is going to spiral.

FT Boris Lvin leaves his board-position from the World Bank in protest against Putins war. He has been in his position for 24 years.

SVT Protests in Vladivostock last night

Bloomberg Norwegian Wealth Fund excluding Li Ning Chines sportswear maker. China has begun buying Russian oil again. “Demand destruction” begins in relation to oil at 150 dollars(Amrita Sen)

Euronews Brussels agree to consider EU membership for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. ICJ Russia has failed to attend the court action initiated by Ukraine–not for war crimes but for manipulating the accusation of Genocide against Ukraine in order to falsely justify the invasion. If Russia do not produce the evidence they have for Genocide the court can present a judgement to the UN security council to stop the invasion.

BBC Lord Tom King former defence secretary. Putin a former KGB officer in Germany is engaged in a mission of madness. He has some kind of deluded idea that this country founded by the Polish aristocracy is a part of Russia. It was not really a part of the Soviet Union and is not a part of Russia. The war is a Strategic and humanitarian catastrophe–indiscriminate bombing of civilians and even killing people using agreed upon humanitarian corridors. Putin has been in power too long and brooding too much on the trauma of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Zelinsky in video call today claimed that the Russians mined the roads that were used as corridors and buses were destroyed.

CNN 100% of amassed Russian force now in Ukraine. 27 hour wait to get into Poland.Lviv has taken in 200,000 displaced Ukrainians.Biden–considering supplying Nato partners in area with air defence material. Russia has already fired over 600 missiles in Ukraine. Mayor of Irpin refused demands from Russians to surrender. Artillery strike killing civilians using humanitarian corridors is breaching trust for what Russians say in negotiations.

Bloomberg China considers buying stakes in Russian energy and commodities firms. Two Chinese banks hold emergency meetings over exposure to Russian derivates holdings. Shell will no longer purchase Russian oil after storm of protest. China Sovereign bonds tumble and are no longer number one as investors begin to have doubts. Chinese tycoon who shorted nickel loses billions Russia stalling Iran talks with demands related to war. Eu to issue bonds to assist with energy and defence costs Gold rises to 19 month high

Reuters Xi virtual meeting with Macron and Scholz claims that they should mediate in the “war” and demands “maximum restraint”(“China is pained to see the flames of war in Europe”–statement Chinese Peoples Political Conference in Ukraine). Some commentators claim that this is the “strongest” statement on the war thus far but still refers to sanctions on Russia as “illegal”

ABC news Zelinsky prepared to discuss the status of Crimea and the independent Republics but “I am not interested in discussing surrender.”

CNN Ukrainian aid convoy heading for northern city fired upon by Russians.

Bloomberg. Even if China saves Russia from the effect of the sanctions. e.g. en economic union based on the Chinese currency there is still the moral question of Russias invasion(Jonathan Ferro) Coca Cola and Mcdonalds stay silent. Biden –US will ban Russian oil from as soon as today—without the participation of EU. Oil up from 126 to 128 per barrel 15 minutes after the news. Does oil mean oil (3% exports) or oil products (8%) The industry has been self sanctioning and shunning these products: tankers refusing to carry the oil, refiners refusing to refine, and buyers refusing to buy. Will UK join the US? China securities commission will permit the listing of certain US companies if they do not threaten security concerns. UK bans Russian oil(over months). Germany says it is prepared if Russia cuts gas flows. Sweden PM says Nato application now would destabilise situation. Frans Timmerman European Commission We are going to reduce dependency on Russian Gas by two thirds by the end of next year and cut successively over the following years. Strategy? Investment in renewables which is a fraction of the cost of investing in fossil fuels We must “get cracking” on this. Christopher Eibl Tiberius Group Sanctions are a nightmare insofar as predicting the consequences are concerned( especially insofar as the self sanctioning phenomenon is concerned) China is the solution for Russia but they will get much lower prices for their products. European companies are rushing to install solar panels on their roofs and in the spaces around their premises. Zelinsky:- Prepared to abandon Nato membership.(AFP press release). Russia refuses to return 10 billion dollars worth of Jets.

Skynews Military expert–The Russians have lost at least 10,000 soldiers in 10 days. In Afghanistan over 8 years they lost 15,000 soldiers and public opinion forced a withdrawal. The bodies sent home caused considerable unrest. Putins solution to this problem was to send crematoria with the troops so that the bodies can be burned. This is why when the Ukrainians find bodies they try to put photos up on a web site so the Russian mothers know their sons are dead.

Reuters Poland is prepared to give all its mig 29(28) aircraft to Ukraine!

Bloomberg LME will not reopen until March 11th. Wild fluctuations of the price of nickel left many investors overexposed and it is not clear what is going to happen to those positions. Taylor Riggs–the market is pricing in 5 rate hikes this year!! Russias access to the WTO is being investigated by US Congress.

CNBC Kyle Bass Hayman Capital– China is helping Russia with the working around the sanctions on credit cards with its own payment system–We need to sanction these bad actors. China is at a crossroads oil and commodities are going up in price astronomically Congress will pass 14 million dollars in aid to Ukraine by the end of this week.

BBC the ca 28 mig 29’s will fly to US base in Germany and the US will decide whether and how to get them into theatre. This will still leave Poland with over 60 F16 interceptor fighters .Russian air force does not have the level of training necessary to fly the sophisticated planes that the Ukrainians have claimed they have shot down. This is why so many planes and helicopters have been shot down–English military expert. Economists reckoning a 13%reduction of GDP this year in Russia with the current sanctions(Quest) Can Putin pay his soldiers and police. Yes because he will print money but in the long run this might create hyperinflation–estimated reduction of 13% this year.

Wednesday 9th March 14th day of war

Bloomberg: Russian bombardment of Kiev intensifies. Von Der Leyen–“We do not wish to work with an oil provider who threatens us” Ruble down 7.8% but it is not clear whether Moscow stock exchange is open

BBC– Mig deal –offer of migs to Ukraine and shipping of migs to Germany initially was accepted by US– But Pentagon claims today that the ambiguity of the deal at the moment is “untenable”

Bloomberg Rosalind Mathiesson on the ground in Russia–shortage of certain foods in supermarkets–difficult to use cards:- very little information from West is circulating though many have relatives in Ukraine. No sign of sentiment changing. Moscow Stock exchange not open but ruble is being locally traded , Bloomberg headline “Ruble slumps in local trading” Oil prices down Bloomberg surveillance:–Hope that there is deescalation and a pathway is opening up. Swedish GDP reduction after 4 month increase. Bit coin up 9%. Yelland positive to Bidens cryptocurrency executive order. Norways wealth fund exclusion of Chines stock has made other funds more sceptical about Chinese stocks. Gas price down 18%: Khodorofsky:- There will be regime change in Russia the question is how soon? European leaders gather in Paris will debate Ukraine EU membership. Russian comment today–“we do not intend to topple the government and we do not plan occupation” Poland has pushed the aircraft issue over to nato for a decision. Admiral Stavridis ex-Nato joint command— Give Ukraine the migs fly them to Germany and let the jets be flown to Lviv. Donetsk needs to be defended from the navy. With 2 million refugees and the war criminal mentality of reducing Ukraine to rubble we need to take risks. Nato is merely operating as a mediator between a member and another democracy under attack. Saudi and UAE not responding to the West’s needs because they have moved closer to Russia and share Russias view of market management(Ellen Wald Atlantic Council) Zelensky evacuation from Kiev has begun. Fed to cease QE buying activity. Biden wishes treasury to investigate pros and cons of a US digital dollar. Chinese refineries have been told not to refine for exports. Xi’s outreach to Europe to mediate in conflict is part of a general strategy to try to move closer to Europe.

CNN white house spokesman on Migs We are not going to escalate this conflict. Saudi rejected a US outreach on matter of increasing production. Chernobyl waste(under Russian control) requires cooling has no power–potential leaks estimation 48 hours.

BBC:-China has sent a consignment of aid through the Chinese red cross to Ukraine–less than one million dollars but significant.

CNBC Expert investor defends holding cash in the current environment because he believes China will invade Taiwan before the end of the year.

BBC Mariupol childrens hospital bombed last night . Chernobyl: International Atomic Energy Commission say electricity is not needed to keep the waste material cooled. Russian owned private jet impounded at Farnborough airport UK.

Sky news –Why sanctions why not dialogue? (Interview with …?) Because some time ago the troops in Crimea in vehicles without any identifying marks were not Russian. The next day suddenly they were Russian troops and they were occupying forces. The gathering of troops around Ukraines border were not going to invade but merely training–the next day they were invading. The Russians claim they are not targeting civilians or civilian infrastructure with their precision munitions and yet there are an enormous number of schools and hospitals bombed. They agree humanitarian corridors and then shell the children using them. –Syrian warfare—One cannot trust what the Russians say so the approach has to change to a non talking – action approach which falls short of responding in kind.

Bloomberg: Andy Roberts Kings College London recently returned from Ukraine “There is no doubt that this is a dirty war being waged by a bad actor”. Whatever the Russians say civilians are being targeted. UAE calling on OPEC to increase production!!! 1400 Russian Jews seeking relocation to Israel in order to avoid to avoid Putins isolationist policies. Gold dropping in price. Russia headed for one f biggest inflation shocks in decades. Not all humanitarian pathways agreed upon have been opened–Kelinsky. Deutsche Bank will answer questions tomorrow (investors day) on Russian exposure. Mark Esper former sec of defence:– Is there a possibility of a negotiated settlement? No not with Putin. Negotiations with Putin is merely Theatre. He is wasting everyones time in order to buy time for himself. This is going to continue–he cannot back down now without being perceived as a failure at home. China have complained about a Pacific Nato. At the moment we have an informal quartet of agreements. China is not a good influence in the world: we ought to continue to form a more formal relation if Japan Korea and Australia want to be certain of their security. German is stalling EU efforts to broaden EU’s Swift ban. Sara House Wells Fargo, Senior Economist- Are we at the point of demand destruction for Petrol—Close but not quite there yet because there are savings due to pent up travel.

CNN Blinken: “Absolutely certain Putin will fail”. Brent oil below 111 dollars–(13.2%down worst day in two years) UAE favours boost in production. Why the reluctance from the Opec countries when they have received so much military support in the past? Greed? Politics? Russians denying they hit the childrens hospital in the fact of extensive evidence( film and witnesses) to the contrary.(An obvious case of spontaneous combustion?)

BBC The mig deal initially had the backing of Blinken. Poland got cold feet and wanted to send the planes to Germany and needed the decision to be taken by Nato—-worry about nuclear missiles in Kaliningrad–Uk is considering sending anti-aircraft equipment.

CNN problems with evacuations today. EU is expanding its sanctions–3 Belarusian banks over 100 more oligarchs. Russian businesses preparing to use crypto currencies to circumvent sanctions. Pentagon briefing(John Kirby): We do not agree that the transfer of planes at this time is the best course- high risk -air defence systems would be better. The Ukrainians have planes–additional aircraft would not make very much difference. 3000 US marines will join Norwegian forces for exercises in Arctic conditions 220 aircraft and 50 ships will be part of exercise. 200 military vehicles.The Russians accused the Ukrainians of developing chemical weapons in las. Pentagon–Russian propaganda:– dont pay any attention to this nonsense—one move in the Russian playbook is to accuse the opposing side of something they are planning to do. This is something they quite regularly do. Poles have been doing an amazing job with the refugees–if they request military help with the refugees we will pitch in and help. Is it a war crime to open humanitarian corridor and then bomb it? I will leave the legal decision to others–we dont want to see this happening. No thermobaric weaponry used yet. Patriot missiles have been ordered to Poland. The bombing of the hospital was a horrific outcome whether it was intentional or not. Jake Tapper—film of victims stumbling out of the wreckage—children trapped under the rubble according to Zelinsky—giant crater outside the hospital—massive air strike. Pregnant women on stretchers carried out. Do not know how many people were killed–are there bodies in the rubble? Zelinsky:- “The world is an accomplice to this terror”. The hospital was in the vicinity of a humanitarian corridor. Buses taking civilians trying to get out were stopped by Russians. Will there be another cease fire for tomorrow when the foreign ministers meet? David Ciciline(Foreign affairs committee)— the bombing of the hospital was just another war crime amongst many. Putin must pay a price for this carnage.

BBC UK also exploring the possibility of providing man-portable missile systems What threshold has to be passed before NATO defends Ukraine—Part of the problem is the Russian lack of progress which commentators believe are a real problem for Putin. Ukrainian politician–but their incompetence with respect to the shelling is exactly part of the problem. This is why we have to stop them killing our civilians. I agree that the hand held missile systems may be a good alternative suggestion.

CNN Karmala Harris arrives in Poland

BBC Husbands and sons will not return. For every demonstrator there is between 100 and 1000 that are too afraid. People are leaving Russia. Mothers groups in Russia are being told that if they release any information relating to the “special military operation” they will be criminally prosecuted. It was these groups that put pressure on the government in the Afghan and Tjejenia because of the returning bodybags. Israel apparently refused to allow Zelinsky to address the Knesset. The Israelis are paying a very ambiguous role in this conflict

Thursday 15th day of war

SVT 146 politicians will have their assets frozen and will not be able to travel. 100,000 children live alone in childrens homes or in boarding schools. Indiscriminate attacks on civilians– children died again last night–Australian aid worker Unicef–one million children have fled–need more medical supplies.

Bloomberg Credit Suisse Russia risk not significant

Sky UK MOD claims there has been a notable decrease of air activity over Ukraine over the last few days.

CNBC Family fled because their house was bombed stopped by Russians waved on and then sprayed with bullets one child shot in the back. Film of mother and child in hospital.

CNN Russia claims that a vaccine research lab is being used by the US to manufacture bioweapons. This has been repeated several times over the past few weeks. Russian overconfidence in propaganda may not be

Aftonbladet The military has been “modernised” over the 20 years Putin has been in power–much of the money has been syphoned off for the oligarchs and used for palaces and yachts(?)

Bloomberg Sweden increases defence spending to 2% of GDP Foreign ministers meet 9.00 am in Turkey today for “peace” talks. ECB makes policy decision today. Otmar Issing President of centre for financial studies:– supply problems in the world economy must be met with fiscal policy. PIMCO wagers that Russia will not default on its debts. China is pushing the Russian propaganda concerning a vaccine lab producing bioweapons Deja vu UAE backtracking on statement yesterday.. This is not the first time OPEC have “played” the West. Foreigners selling Indian stocks at ca one billion dollars per day. Goldman Sachs downgrades EU growth from 3.9 to 2.5 % Is this a call for fiscal stimulus? There is an increase in military spending and more government spending will be needed for refugees. We now estimate inflation figures to be higher. Election of conservative candidate may make S Korean stocks more attractive again . Kurt Volker former ambassador to UN “There can be no business dealings with Putin in charge”Sergei Guriev Russian economics professor Russian decline in GDP could decline from anything between 7-15%. Russians have become addicted to a middle class life with technological gadgets–that is disappearing as we speak. Those Russians who have access to internet do not believe in the war It is difficult to tell amongst those who say they support the war how many are tellng the truth because it is a crime to say you are against the war–so do not believe any of the polls coming out of Russia. You get a telephone call and have no means of checking who is ringing you–most people in that situation either say they dont know or they say they support the war. Putin miscalculated the length of the war and this is why the censorship occurred so late in the process–so a number of people already know the true state of affairs. Abramovic sanctioned by UK–How does this affect the sale of Chelsea FC? Algebris:(Silvia Merler–head of policy)- Russian economy is in plus and will remain viable until that moment energy is sanctioned. There will be recession and inflation will be high but as long as Russia can sell its oil and gas the account will be in plus. Sanctions have hit central bank reserves. Chinas role–if EU sanction energy? Demand curtailment must occur. Possible China purchase but not in large amounts- because of the pipeline structure. Uk MOD claims Russia has admitted to the use of thermobaric weapons.

BBC No progress at peace talks: Lavrov did not have the authority to negotiate humanitarian corridors!! Did not agree with 24 hour cease fire proposal. Rosneft will pay its 2 billion dollar bond.

Bloomberg:- Peace talks Russia still demanding a surrender to the forces of “the special military operation”. Russias response to self-sanctioning company exodus is to nationalise the company seize its assets and appoint its own mangers and board. ECB leaves main refinancing rate at 0%:- leaves deposit facility rate unchanged. Any rate adjustment will be gradual. Faster winding down of asset purchase program. ECB cannot deal with supply chain shock. Still possible that interest rates might be raised in Q3

BBC:- Lavrov called the response to the bombing of the hospital in Mariupol a “pathetic outcry”. He claimed that “nationalist gunmen” occupied the building and were using it for military purposes. The film of the bombing of the hospital has not been shown in Russia because the official position is that it is “fake news” and showing or referring to it is connected to the likelihood of a criminal prosecution. Lavrov also claimed: ” I keep having to explain that we did not invade Ukraine”

Bloomberg ECB sees inflation to be 5.1% –2022 and will stabilise at 2%(Lagarde) Latin American currencies are the best performers this year–this will help them with inflation Bond buying will slow down in May. Euro falls to session lows. Estonian PM says Putin is like a poker player, “all in” and prepared to cause the maximum amount of damage, win or lose. Goldman Sachs to withdraw from Russia–first wall street pull-out. Emily Hill– strong correlation between high oil prices and recession. Putin has made a huge strategic mistake–underestimating the strength of democracies.

Bloomberg CNBC: Janet Yellen claims that China will not be able to mitigate the sanctions on Russia to any great extent Chinese financial institutions are engaging in “risk aversive behaviour with Russian deals –worrying about the breach of sanctions. China tech stocks down 10%–dragging US techs down. Twitter removed tweets from the Russian embassy in London claiming that the images of the bombed Mariupol hospital were “fake”. China stocks in the US tumble 10%

Friday 16th day of war

Bloomberg Russian air attacks targeting airfields in Western Ukraine. Japan joins US and EU in banning chip exports. Chine covid infections spike. Russian bombing of Ukraine intensifies(headline) Slovenian PM–If Russia takes Ukraine he will go one. His goal has been clear from the beginning he wants Ukraines natural resources and he wants a new Soviet Union–but he has miscalculated the EU is very prosperous and strong and he is president of a country whose average wage has stayed at 600 euros for the 20 years he has been in power. The Ukrainians will prevent him from achieving his goal–he will be forced to negotiate and until there is a settlement the sanctions stay in place–the longer they stay in place the more damage is done to his economy. European stocks set for first weekly gain. Gordon Brown former UK PM– calls for the prosecution of Putin for war crimes. Richest Russian oligarch (V Potanin) angry over Russian counter sanctions(Personal Telegram posts). China markets in turmoil.

Al Jazeera: Ukrainian defence ministry say that the number of civilians killed now exceed military personnel. Expert claims that most deaths have been killed by rockets and not airforce. This conflict has revealed that the Russian air force is not very competent. They have spent enormous amounts of moneys but the Ukrainian air defences have prevented air superiority.

Euronews BBC long military convoy outside Kiev has begun to move. Russia announces export bans on over 200 products Twitter aims to bypass censorship restrictions with private alternative. twitter.onion

CNN 2.5 million refugees, more than one million children.

Bloomberg India considering paying in rupees for Russian imports. Conditions for Putins ceasefire not acceptable by anyone(Macron) China–LI–Claimed that Sovereign territory must be respected and wants the warring parties to negotiate ceasefire. In 1998 Russia defaulted on local payments today we are talking about international payments–a much more serious matter. Ukraine made payment of 300 million dollar debt on 1st March. Ukraine continues to raise money for its debts.

BBC Facebook to allow calls for violence against Putin. Odessa preparing for attack Dateline Russian journalist people are panicking because of the sanctions food prices are going up the shelves are emptying people cannot get at their money. British journalist: there is no doubt about my mind that we are witnessing the beginning of the end for Putin—how long that will take is anyones guess. Things are getting dark in Russia. Russia State media heard loud and clear on the air-waves in Washington!!(headline) Deutsche bank reverses its position and pans to wind down operations in Russia. Iran nuclear negotiations stalled.

Aljazeera interview with senior official of centre for civil liberties(Ukrainian organisation): We are collecting forensic evidence of breaches of the Geneva convention and more serious war crimes. There is evidence that the UN also has of cluster bombs and incendiary munitions which have been used on the civilian populations. Intensity of breaches and war crimes increasing every day..(Parts of this interview have been independently confirmed by other media)

BBC Instagram in banned in Russia because of violent posts directed at Putin

Euronews Mayor of Melitopol kidnapped by Russian forces incident captured on film

Saturday 17th day

Euronews Women in film from bombing of hospital who was accused by Russian Twitter accounts of not being pregnant and having faked make up blood on her face has been tracked down by Euronews and has now had her baby and has scabs on her face. Reporting these facts in Russia it was pointed out is now criminal and associated with possible 15 year sentence in prison. The ambassador in the UN claimed the hospital bombing was “fake news”. English footballers playing for Chelsea are now worrying about their futures. Reporter asks them to try for one moment to imagine what it is like living in Kiev. Being “in bed” with a Russian oligarch just has its consequences and it would be a good idea if they “shut up”. In urban warfare a ratio of 5 attackers to 1 defender is needed to win. The Russians have not got the numbers in the larger cities.

Sky Active artillery fire on residential areas again in Kiev last night. As the sun rose gunfire was echoing around the city. Russians again blocked with shelling the humanitarian corridor leading form Mariupol again yesterday. Odessa is being heavily fortified in readiness for coming assault.

CNN Kharkiv nuclear lab hit by missile fire inside is a tank with radioactive material. No leakage.

BBC Kherson has been captured Zelinsky compares Russian shelling of civilians to ISIS

BBC Two FSB heads placed under house arrest. FSB had the responsibility for preparing the ground for the replacement of the Ukrainian government after the invasion of Ukraine. These officials told Putin what he wanted to hear and are now being blamed for the fiasco in Ukraine. Putin is worried about the level of accurate intelligence the West had in relation to the invasion FSB’s recruitment policy is to use relatives of ex agents.

Euronews Estonian PM(born in the Soviet Union): If we are attacked article 5 goes into effect. We are preparing for all possibilities. Estonia claimed in the EU Parliament that Ukraines application must be speeded up. EU has been very quick and united in relation to the sanctions. We know this surprised Putin.We are exploring imposing new sanctions. Gas might be expensive but freedom is priceless. 300,000 Russian speakers but they are not a homogenous group.

Sky news G7 withdrew favoured nation status in relation to Russia–critical imports banned Russia will not be able to access IMF and World Bank financing. Interview with military expert:–Does this look like Afghanistan? Yes. From a strategic perspective Putin has lost this war. Even if he topples the government the people will never give up. They have not got the numbers for urban warfare. Head of FSB removed, generals removed all indicate a furious little man pushed into a corner attacking his own inner circle. We can hope that his inner circle are in the process of turning against him. …Psychiatric hospital hit in Kharkiev

BBC Mykolaiv standing in the way of the Russian advance to Donetsk. Advance stopped and Russians retreated.

CNN Lt Gen Mark Hertling(US) Russian tactics make no military sense but they make sense from the perspective of terrorising the civilian population of Ukraine. Villages are being used as a base for artillery where there are no military targets within the range of the artillery. …EU agreed to affect Russias status(Suspend their membership) in relation to the IMF and the World Bank. Plans also to Push Russia out of the WTO. Macron–more sanctions on the way. Blocking of attempts to circumvent financial sanctions using cryptotechnology. Ban of iron and steel and luxury goods.

Al jazeera Save the Children claim that seven and a half million children are at risk in Ukraine Putin recruiting foreign volunteers to fight “the nazis”(from Syria) Countries in North Africa are going to be seriously affected by grain shortages Wheat prices are at a 14 year high. Jörgen Klopp supports UK sanctions on Abramovic.

Bloomberg lower oil prices may be partly due to “demand destruction” people cutting back.

Bloomberg Wall Street Week Sam Zell: (Equity Group investments) It is complicated to be an investor in war time Bought some gold because fears of weakness of the dollar. Energy investments? Always believed in diversification is important energy diversification is part of my strategy. Biden is naive on domestic oil–making permits to drill almost impossible to obtain. We have shale investments today in spite of administrations negativity. Should one go into cash or game the situation out? Dont game out, go liquid and diversification are the best response to the current uncertainty. Larry Summers(former US Treasury Sec):-Fed needs to begin tightening, needs to admit its mistakes over inflation levels prior to the war. Russia and China are both adversaries. Need infrastructure spending–need to move beyond partisan bickering and ask about the fundamentals of the economic system we must be heavily invested in renewables and sponsor oil pipelines at home. We have adversaries at home extremists trying to tear down our political infrastructure. Sanctions? What are we learning. They are doing enormous damage but we need to think carefully about divestment –the bad guys can buy assets for a song.

CNN Diplomacy? No progress Russians want complete surrender. Until something happens on the battlefield the negotiations are a waste of time. Russia not serious even if we have heard hints from both sides –still too far from common ground. Will financial pressures affect the outcome. They are having an affect. But will the unity behind them continue?On the battlefield the Russians are taking heavy losses but they are grinding slowly forward.(Robert English)

BBC 600 million dollar yacht belonging to Russian oligarch seized in Trieste.Newspapers have suggested that many of these yachts were bought from the process of syphoning off funds meant for “modernising” the Russian military.

BBC Panel debate Is Lithuania the next target. Lithuanian rep: perhaps but we should not be too apprehensive. What we are witnessing is a bumbling barbaric murderous force trying to make progress in the Ukraine. The Russian armed forces are weak in comparison to the NATO professional forces. Are we witnessing WW3? Russia has nuclear weapons BUT Nato are trying to avoid the wider war scenario. Ukrainian rep We need a no fly zone in order to defend nuclear facilities–Nato has to be more active

CNN Putin Macron and Scholz will have contact by phone today—-experts claim that there is no likelihood of a breakthrough given the recent new package of sanctions that have been implemented. Zelinsky calling on EU to do more for Ukraine—fast track membership denied. EU recently doubled their economic package. Military strategy? Col Cedric Leighton risk for use of chemical weapons– International community has to prepare to deal with such an eventuality. Putin wants an escalation and this is his next logical step(Ed Arnold (Economic Security Research Fellow)) What military aid?– small arms replenishment stingers anti-tank and anti-personnel weapons. Too late to train the forces to use the Patriot system.

Aljazeera The US, EU, UK, and Canada have frozen assets belonging to Putin in their territory(?)

Sky Help workers demand that orphanages are recognised as humanitarian centres and excluded from other “civilian targets”. Food water and medicine running out–staff are also concerned about their own families. (Hope and Homes for Children Mark Warrington)

BBC Russian forces are regrouping for an attack—moving to encircle Kiev. Kharkiev is a dystopian wasteland after Russian shelling for two weeks 15 humanitarian corridors theoretically opened up today. Protests in captured Melitopol at abduction of Mayor—Kelinsky— “this is a terrroristic act directed at our democracy–return this official immediately or be regarded as terrorists”. Not clear what is being planned for this city– an old city loved by many Russians— difficult to believe that Putin will shell this city into submission with the civilian cast–numbers of troops?—–only one city has fallen so far—they are the underdogs but have caused considerable losses. Elements of the large column north of Kiev have dispersed…. Wagner mercenaries earn 2000 dollars per month They have been operating in the Ukrainian war. Using new names like “Hawks” because of the association of the Wagner group with violations of human rights in Syria and elsewhere. Syrian fighters are now being recruited–not clear if they are mercenaries or not.

Euronews: 119 billion dollars earnings per annum from Oil and Gas Russian exports Are there ways to get around sanctions—–China—-weak link otherwise the sanctions are ferocious in their impact Bitcoin even if you put it there to take it out you need a bank and that bank is going to ask questions. The effort has been amazingly joined up—what is the intended outcome–social and political unrest—financial impact of this is devastating. Sanctions on the central bank to all extents make Putins war chest inaccessible. China? will it fall into line–US has said there will be retaliatory measures China relies too much on the dollar to risk been excluded—there is no realistic alternative system.(Senior Political advisor on Europe)

CNN Gary Kasparov Chess world champion and Member of the Russian opposition party. On the line of demarcation between what weapons can and what weapons cannot be delivered, GK Biden does not seem to realise that Putin is at war with Nato and will escalate the conflict until war is a de facto reality. GK doubts that the Russian air force will engage in any intensive manner with a no fly zone if one is instituted The migs should have been sent. 2.6 million have fled—UN…. Ex President Poroshenko The Russians have made 4 miscalculations: 1. overestimated their own capacities. 2. underestimated the efficacy of the resistance. 3. underestimated the unity of Ukraine.4. underestimated the unity of the world against them.

Sunday 18th day of the war

CNN Diplomatic efforts hit another wall. Macron, Scholz argued fruitlessly for a ceasefire. Putin intent on achieving his “objectives” Biden approves 200 million dollars aid for Ukraine. Russians calling Ukrainian hotline looking for lost troops. People ringing are apologizing for the war…”our children are being used for canon fodder” Everybody is so scared in Russia” “Everybody is scared to talk”. Airfield and base hit by missiles 35 dead over one hundred injured. Very close to the polish border Polish official (Foreign Minister)–Russians may ave feared that migs would have been flown into this airfield and foreign fighters may be gathering there. How would you review Kelinsky’s leadership? Kelinsky was slow to respond to intelligence about the coming invasion: he should have mobilised 48 hours earlier but since then he has been a transformational figure–he has become the conscience of the world. What about nuclear weapons in Ukraine? What might happen is that a weapon is not dropped but exploded in the air above Kiev to cause a state of paralysis to the advantage of the ground forces. Chemical weapons? these were used in WW1 to very little effect so we should condemn their use but not exaggerate their effect

BBC Russian audiences are being told that the reason there are so few entertainment programs is because everyone wishes to hear the news. A Russian journalist claims this is untrue and could be a key lie that eventually will be exposed and help to undermine the credibility of the authorities. Russian troops have abducted a second mayor. 2100 residents of Mariupol have been killed. Demonstrations in Moscow—752 people arrested over the whole country 350 arrested in Moscow. Zelinsky walked openly down a street in Kiev and visited a hospital. Russian forces moving closer to the capital. Prize -winning Journalist shot to death in his car and one other journalist injured whilst passing through a checkpoint. Journalists are civilians and killing civilians is a war crime but this is not the first time civilians have been shot passing through a Russian checkpoint. Russian forces are now thought to be less than 10 miles away from Kiev. (18.30) Soldier in Kiev going back to fight after losing fingers. Thanks the UK for the military help. Ukraine foreign affairs committee: Hopko : US ought to act as a guarantor of Ukraine’s security because Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons which would have prevented any occupation. President Douda of Poland: Putin could use any kind of weapon right now because he is not winning the war. Are chemical weapons a red line. Such use would be a game changer. What about the migs? Sensitive issue: there is disagreement: Polish public opinion is cautious about this step. Also sending these planes would put Nato in a possible difficult position. Are you confident that Nato would defend you? Yes, of course. Russia has evolved its imperialist ambitions. When anyone speaks to me about Russian communism shivers go down my spine. I was born in that regime and never want to see it again.

Sky news Kelinsky is claiming that negotiations are more constructive than they have been.(not confirmed anywhere else)

Independent newspaper interview with UK Chancellor: Think very carefully about investments in Russia:–the effects of the sanctions are going to be maximal.

CNN Retired Brig General: I have been against any escalation by Nato but now seeing the civilian devastation and the threat of chemical weapons I am wavering –“Hell hath no fury like democracy scorned” Perhaps we should send troops in whilst there is still a Ukrainian military left. A Monastry with people sheltering was targeted. Gary Kasparov—Russians are escalating–this is Russias war against Nato :–this is what Putin has said about this war He believes that Nato has weapons but lacks the political will—giving him the space he needs for escalation. Read history books: appeasement and demonstrating weakness promotes a dictators agenda. This is WW3. The sooner we go in the better. They will put in puppets but there is no support for occupation amongst Russian speaking Ukraines. Will Putin grind this out? Ukraine has a large army Putin is running low on heavy armour and manpower–All Ukraine needs is support–they can win they have both manpower and the spirit. William Cohen ex sec of defence—– Ukraines can hold on (Blumenthal give the Ukrainians the planes) WC:–I am tired of letting the Russians telling us what to do The time has come to stop . The time will come to answer for all this mayhem but let’s begin drawing red lines. The time for China has come to pressure Putin. Pope called on Russia to stop “reducing towns and cities to cemeteries”.

CNN :-ex KGB agent: Putin was a mediocre mid level bureaucrat according to his superiors. He only emerged as a leader because of the poor judgment of Jeltsin and the fact that there were no other candidates available

Euronews Danish troops deployed in Estonia UK RAF Typhoons arrive in Cyprus.

BBC Children have died because of the water shortages(Mariupol)

Monday 19th day of war

Ukraine claim 12,000 dead Russian soldiers. Where are the bodies? The Guardian claims they are being transported to Belarus and will not be shipped back to Russia until the “special military operation” is completed. Morgues are overfull with bodies and blood for the casualties is running short

BBC Missile Attacks are beginning on residential buildings in Kiev. Russian are targeting aid conveys to prevent humanitarian aid from arriving. Expert points out the importance of “thinking carefully” given the fact that Russia possesses 1600 nuclear weapons at his disposal. Another failed attempt to get aid into Mariupol or people out–tanks rolling in to the city. Children dying of thirst.

Bloomberg Panic Selloff(9%) in tech in Chinese markets North Korea may test ICBM this week Chinese lockdown (Shenzhen(17 and a half million people) Changchun lockdown –9 million people)—tech factories closing. Weaker than expected credit data from China. Oil price down?(8.50) US and Chine officials meet in Rome today. China is planning a massive increase in coal production…Russia has asked China for military aid!! The promised cyberattack from Russia has not happened why not. The hackers working for the government are young people who are against the war—(Russian CEO in IT). China stock in US rout reaching dot com crash levels.

Euronews: Ukraine negotiator–moving toward a compromise–Russian negotiator progress has been made which might result in written agreement

BBC cautious optimism over negotiations Russian people are now becoming aware that soldiers are dying in this “special military operation–Russian demands have not changed. Russian media is spreading info that Ukraine is a risk because it is trying to acquire nuclear weapons. Reports that Russia have asked China for weapons—Chinese official claims that the US info is “disinformation”. 30 cruise missiles fired at base near Poland yesterday–Poland have protested. Regarded by Nato as an escalation.Russian drone crash in Croatia flew a long way before crashing—probably Russian—crashed in Croatia when it ran out of fuel. There will come a point when Nato escalates in response–(Dr Peter Adams)

Bloomberg Seth Jones(author of work on guerilla warfare):The entire Ukrainian population will engage in guerrilla urban warfare.In Aleppo the Russians could bomb it but did not have to occupy the territory afterward . Russians Lost more soldiers in two weeks than the US lost in 20 years in Afghanistan. Cannot see that Russia are looking for a settled agreement. Russia entirely incapable of putting together an effective ground strategy—no improvement in this area over the 18 days of war. How far can a sniper be ?—could be over 1000 yds away. Military supplies “legitimate targets”–what does it mean? One stray missile in Poland will change the whole equation. One cruise missile or ballistic missile with damaged guidance system could well cause damage in Poland. Are we close to a Nato engagement? We need to begin considering what the war is going to look like. What would direct combat look like? Containment is the problem. It would probably begin with aircraft…this might escalate into ground warfare. Phil Orland– If Putin thinks he is going to walk into the UN and make a speech after all this is over he does not understand much about people or the law…

BBC Women filmed at the bombing of the maternity clinic who Russian media claimed had a fake pillow under her jersey and make up faking blood has now died along with her baby. Donjesk: major incident:–separatist claim that Ukrainian missile killed civilians.

CNN Russian threat to arrest business leaders who defy govt.. Russia denies claim. Russia claims that “Business interests have not been compromised in any way by the special military operation”. President of Russian Nickel export company “This will take Russia back 100 years”. Top Chinese and US officials have met:– waiting for information (14.00).

Sky news Latvian PM Negotiations? Putin will only stop when he is stopped. When he is stopped he will come to the negotiation table and not before. UN Gen Sec: Calls for immediate cease fire and serious negotiations . What about the missile sent by the Ukrainians into Donetsk? Lets be clear: The overwhelming damage to civilian infrastructure and death of civilians has been caused by Russian forces. Russias response was to accuse the UN of being partial (prelude to voluntary withdrawal?)Red Cross calls for urgent solution to problems of water shortage, food shortage and medicine: a few hundred vehicles have at last been allowed to leave the city. It is a race against time for the city.

Euronews MH17 crash:– Australia and Netherlands suing Russia for responsibility for shooting airplane down on basis of evidence from 5 countries. Forensic evidence has been identified as Russian. Russia deny they were involved.Expulsion of Russia from Council of Europe to be discussed. Hope is that they will voluntarily withdraw. 20 Ukrainian civilians killed in Donjesk by missile.

BBC Nine story apartment block targeted on outskirts of civilians killed and many had to be rescued by emergency services. .Civilians are being shot whilst evacuating. People buried in mass graves in Mariupol. Many people died because of lack of medication. Bodies are lying around in the streets.

Bloomberg US Fund managers run away from China stocks. Israeli government websites crash emergency declared. Morgan Stanley: zero growth for China this quarter

Sky International Court of Justice will rule on Wednesday on Ukraines injunction to stop the war immediately.

Tuesday 20th day of war

BBC Protest against the war by a television employee ashamed of distributing what she called “kremlin propaganda” interrupted state television program. Two large explosion in the centre of Kiev UK heavily criticised for its unnecessary bureaucracy in processing refugee applications. EU approved a 4th set of sanctions against Russia(targeting 600 oligarchs–also iron and steel)–new sanctions from the UK(350 oligarchs, ban on vodka fertiliser etc)).UK PM: The West made a terrible mistake over Crimea…

Aljazeera: 500 Aeroflot aircraft banned from flying in international air space (leases expired and planes ought to be handed back) Will the planes be seized by Russian state?

Bloomberg China wants to avoid sanctions over Russia. “China is not a party to the crisis”. Chinese US Talks were constructive. Continued pressure on Chinese tech sector. Russia turned to China for drones the US continue to insist.

Euronews Press sec US: “We are not convinced of Putins sincerity we need to see what is being talked about with our own eyes”(in relation to negotiations) Bread prices rose by 40% in Sudan–protests.

CNN Russia could default on its debt on Wednesday(170 million dollars). Interest rates could then spike and push economy further over the edge.Stock markets still closed Seven hour talks :Cable: China may be open to sending Russia aid. Leaders of Czech, Poland, and Slovenia travelling to Kiev to meet Zelensky. Putin seeking to escalate(Susan Lassiter —chemical weapons——-Russians closing in on Kiev. This is going to be the largest urban war ever seen. Curfew means that some troops are already in. Will Nato stay on the sidelines? 65 strikes in one day in Kharkiev: second largest city.(600 residential buildings destroyed since the beginning of the war–50 schools and hospitals) There is a risk that if China does proceed down the road of assisting Russia there will be a wave of investor self sanctioning of China as may be occurring now in relation to the crashing of China tech stocks which some commentators claim may be the result of and may be responding to China’s ambivalent position. UK PM Putin has been a “pusher” for the European addiction to Russias Hydrocarbon products–this must change quickly. Fox news journalist killed. Looks like the press are being targeted along with civilians.

BBC UK MP We are too risk aversive with respect to arming Ukraine. Longer range weapons than anti tank weapons need to provided.

Bloomberg China will not risk sending weapons to Russia and send its own tech sector into deeper dive. Explanation for oil price going to under 100 dollars= India bought Russian oil at a discount of 30 dollars this brought the price down.

Euronews 2000 cars with civilian survivors left Mariupol in a convoy today . President of Georgia :we shall maintain our ties with the EU.Jens Stoltenberg : In the light of the invasion and the facilitation role of Belarus we now face a new reality and we are going to reset our military posture. 100,000 troops in Europe , hundreds of thousands more on alert Russias ambassador to the EU: Precision shelling is occurring: our troops are being very careful any other news reporting is fake news.

Wednesday 21st day of War

CNN doctors and nurses being held against their will by the Russians in a hospital in Mariupol. Russians captured do not know why they in Ukraine. They are forced to advance–if they go back they are shot for retreating. Hospital have to operate in darkness after sunset to avoid being deliberately targeted.

Sky Emergency Nato meeting today resetting of military posture. Discussing permanent presence of troops in Eastern border countries….Interview with chief propagandists in Russia on the public protest on TV –“She represents a small minority of people—she is a heroine in the west but for us this operation represents a spiritual choice.” “What do you say about people il Ukraine sitting underground and ringing their relatives in Russia and telling them that their apartment blocks are being bombed.” “I do not believe it. The majority of Ukraine is terrorised by a minority of nationalists”

Bloomberg North Korea missile launch failed–may have exploded. Government promised fiscal policy intervention in China –buying stocks, protecting property stocks in particular, cutting interest rates has caused stocks to soar today. Oil prices over 100 dollars again. Boris Johnson to meet UAE and Saudi to discuss oil supply. Recession possibility less than 33%(William Hobbes) Shenzen in China–younger people want to take it easy compared to their parents. Putin claims that Ukraine are not conducting talks seriously ahead of talks today. Saudi claims it is considering accepting Chinese currency in payment for their oil China denies advance knowledge of the war. Chinese policy makers assured business community that there will be future stability in stock market. Brain drain Russia—thousands of people continue to flee Russia…. PM’s of Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Slovenia visited Kelensky in Kiev. Poland’s PM suggests an armed peace-keeping force in Ukraine: either Nato or UN.

CNN Three Russian helicopters and a number of vehicles destroyed at Kherson airport(the town is in the possession of the Russians) Polish PM :give Ukraine EU membership. Negotiators working in sub groups to formulate some form of written document–continuation today. Biden will announce more military aid after Zelensky’s address to the Senate. Zelensky is expected to request no fly zone and/or planes/drones. Sec Blinken: This was was never about Ukraines Nato relation. At the time of the invasion it was clear that Ukraine did not meet the conditions necessary for immediate membership. What this is about is simply the fact that Putin wishes to deny the independent existence of the Ukrainian nation. White House reporter–Natasha: Zelensky will definitely drop the aim to become a member of Nato if no significant help comes from that quarter.

Bloomberg: On the accusation that Ukraine is developing biological ” weapons”. All countries do biological research for the purposes of disease prevention(e.g. the Chinese laboratories that were suspected as being the source of covid). When the Ukraine distanced itself from the Soviet the US helped them to convert their military biological labs to normal disease prevention labs. Will Putin use biological chemical weapons? This is an irrational war in which human life is clearly not respected not even the life of the Russian soldiers–so who knows whether these kinds of weapons will appear in the theatre. Negotiation rumour:- Ukraine prepared to adopt an Austrian-Sweden neutrality deal. Tom Keane’s comment–the art of war-negotiation is “always give the idiot a way out”. 15 point peace plan being drawn up in negotiations demanding that Ukraine do not join any military alliances and retain an army to defend itself.

CNN Blinken Investigation into whether journalists are being intentionally targeted. Interview with with Radio free Europe: Russia has a long history of targeting and imprisoning journalists..They will do anything to stop the truth coming out about the regime–journalists are the opposition and their preferred approach to opposition politicians is to poison and imprison them. Many Russians use our service and our audience numbers have not gone down –there is a Russian audience that want the truth. Mariupol theatre bombed with hundreds of civilians sheltering. Lavrov claims that neutrality proposal is interesting. Russia is transporting more troops from all parts of Eastern Russia. Kelensky speech request no fly zone and planes or more sophisticated air defence systems. Likened what is happening to Ukraine every day what happened 9/11. Biden responds with massive 800 billion dollar package 9000 anti armour weapons, 20 million rounds of ammunition more sophisticated air defence systems, armed drones and the promise of economic help to the end of the war –claiming that it is going to be a long affair. Biden referred to Putin as a war criminal and called the activities systematically targeting civilians as “depraved”. Looks as if bond payment was made –paid with by gold reserves—not clear that this is legitimate–experts will determine whether this is a default or not. If it is it will be the first time in over 100 years that Russia has defaulted on Sovereign debt. If it is in default they will be black balled for decades in the financial markets.

Euronews Russia ordered by ICJ to cease hostilities and withdraw troops.

CNN J Powell raised interest rats and the market responded positively. Fed will unwind mortgage assets first in QT

BBC One of the most prominent ballerinas has left Russia in protest against the war and joined a Dutch ballet company

Thursday 22nd day of war

NBC Interview with Zelensky “Do you understand that the West wish to avoid WW3? How do we know that this WW3 has not already started?

CNBC Hundreds of French troops to Estonia

CNN people leaving Russia by air ,car and even on foot with a suitcase. Elina Ribakova Putin recently commented that the Soviet Union achieved great success. Many were leaving before the war–the war made up the minds of most of those that were considering leaving. 10 people lining up for bread killed in a missile attack –Kelensky more than a 100 children have been killed–any talk of red lines is meaningless for me: where will the line be drawn– 1000 children? Russia claims that Ukrainian radicals caused the blast. UK MOD claim that Russian offensive is not moving forward but Russian are still experienced heavy losses.

BBC Russian war ships shelling from black sea Theatre had the Russian word for children written in large letters on two sides of the building that is easily visible from the air. 5 people injured in shelling of a convoy trying to leave Mariupol.

Euronews Speech by Zelensky to German Parliament. Russia are using your money for the war on us. A new wall separates Germany from Ukraine:- every business deal is a new stone in that wall. Why are countries across the Atlantic more sympathetic to our cause? What do we have to do to join Nato?

Bloomberg Chinas covid outbreak seems to be slowing Stephanie Baker interview with Putin: Sanctions will not sway Putin and sanctions on the oligarchs will not affect the war effort. He controls the oligarchs not vice versa. Taking away the yachts of the oligarchs may make us feel good but has no effect on Putin. Could these oligarchs be holding his money. seizing Putins assets will not bother him because he has the entire Russian budget under his control. US set to revoke Russias trade status which will result in high tariffs on goods J Powell says the US economy looks strong.

BBC German Industry minister has made a deal for Norwegian Gas and is heading of to Qatar for another deal. Quote from Putins speech:–Russians in the West live like “slaves” to luxury. Russia denies denes recruiting conscripts —the ages of the 9 “soldiers” exchanged for the Mayor was between 19-20 years old.

SVT Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was on a flight to Peking for a meeting–his plane had to turn around and return to Russia.—- Biden meets with Xi tomorrow.

CNN the country that made the greatest contribution to denuclearisation was denied access to the security that it was promised(Victor Yuschenko -ex president of Ukraine poisoned –2004-5 and almost died when we was running against Putins-backed candidate– The Putin I used to know is not there anymore–he is gone Was your poisoning organised by Putin? –All the parties involved are in Russia —this is a criminal case and they are not available for questioning—Putin is a fatal problem for Russia–he has started 7 wars. I am confident he will soon be a part of the past. Russia suffers from same disease that Putin does. Yuschenko started the process of applying to Nato–When I saw Merkels refusal I thought the decision was made in Moscow.. I might have been mistaken about joining Nato……

Friday 23rd day of War

CNN Lviv building by airport hit by missile. Xi to talk by phone with Biden today.

SVT Russian assets in “fonder” almost worthless

Bloomberg Moscow stock exchange to open today? Chaos on LME again yesterday. Deadline for bids for Chelsea FC is today.The Uk just want Abramovic gone. Oil price jumps to 106 dollars–pessimism over peace talks. Russian demands which contain references to denazification–Putin wishes face to face with Zelensky.

BBC Lavrov state tv interview—in English!. The US wants Europe to look like a US “saloon” and is calling all the shots in cutting off Russia from the West. Sanctions make us stronger and when the door opens again to the West —when the West “come to their senses” we will look closely at all proposals of cooperation RT ceased broadcasting in the UK after their licence to broadcast was withdrawn.

CNN Morale of Russian soldiers low because of lack of training of conscripts and greater than expected losses. Vehicles abandoned in fields.—-but military leadership still believe they can take the whole of Ukraine. The missile strike on Lviv 6 missiles fired two intercepted. Important for Ukrainians to take out missile sites. Gen Mark Kimmet Russians lost 20,000 men in one day in ww2, so a few thousand in this war is nothing for them. The view of the matter of course looks different to those that are fighting on the ground.

Bloomberg Swiss banks hold 200 billion dollars of Russian money. Sanctioned Venezuela bonds are worth 10% of original value—becoming more attractive on prospect of partial lifting of sanctions. US believes China is tacitly supporting Russia hence the telephone call today. Putin blames the Ukrainians for lack of progress in peace talks in conversation with Scholz.

BBC Putin holds rally inviting tens of thousands of state employees to celebrate the heroes of the “special Military operation”. The media sending was abruptly interrupted but it is not clear whether this was a technical problem or an intentional act.

FT claim that in relation to the Putin rally that state employees were bussed to the venue with a promise of 500 rubles plus dinner compensation.

CNN Ukrainians claim that they have pushed back the Russians from Kiev to the south west and east of the city(unverified) Several case of intercepted missile damage on apartment buildings…. Does the administration support regime change in Russia? That is not for us to determine–that is a question for the Russian people. Biden warned Xi of the consequences of supporting Russia–“this conflict is in no-ones interest”–one hour 50 minute conversation. Xi Claimed that the US must shoulder some of the responsibility to find a peaceful solution. Lines will stay open. US warned China that cooperation which results in prolonging the war will be costly for those involved. Some hackers have infiltrated Russian media sites and provided info concerning the number of soldiers killed. Worries continue to persist that China is going to support Russia in different ways.

Sky news Rescuers digging with bare hands to pull survivors out from theatre wreckage. Temperatures near freezing. One man pulled out this evening. 130 survivors so far. Russians continue shelling . Residential areas flattened in Mariupol. What supplies have you got? –no water, food or medicine. All aid has been blocked. 3000 people dead. Mariepol completely surrounded.

Bloomberg Defensive insurance positions commodities, banking ,energy Tech rebound—a little more risky—Bonds? always a place but not heavy: investment yield curve is going to steepen. Will the fed bail the bond out as it has done in the past?

Saturday 24th day

CNN Some people say they were forced by their bosses to attend the Putin rally in the stadium Over a hundred dead from Ukraine military as a result of a missile strike on an army base…. Mariupol Theatre: information sparse:– 130 people rescued–could have been 1200-1300 people–not clear whether people are trapped underground or how many are dead.

BBC Priest fined for anti-war sermon. Ukraine claims it is conducting counter-offensive operations and pushing the Russians back. Gordon Brown, John Major and 138 prominent lawyers, judges etc have called for the setting up of a tribunal to try Putin for war crimes. War crime investigations are continuing in Syria where a similar pattern of hospital, school, and residential “indiscriminate” bombing reduced Aleppo to Rubble. A condition for bringing the charge though is that the war be over and the defendant be in custody. No one can be tried in absentia. Documentation of possible war crimes has been proceeding almost as soon as the war began. Modern technology assures that evidence collected of a digital nature(which includes satellite imagery from both cvil and military satellites) can be transmitted to safe locations and steps are being taken to insure that forensic evidence(e.g missile fragments) is transported to “safe” locations away from the war-zone. Independent Witnesses such as aid workers and the press, have already provided documented(filmed) evidence of strikes on hospitals and schools and interviewed witnesses who have been bombed.

Bloomberg Syria’s Assad visits UAE… Marina Litvenenko is British citizen now but fears to return to Russia because this citizenship is not recognised if one previously was Russian. Her husband Alexander Litvenenko was an ex KGB agent who defected to the West but was poisoned and died.Business as usual in the markets last week–rates stabilised—people on the side lines with cash came back into the market—appears to be some detaching of China from Russia. Rich Reider of Blackrock— an extraordinary week! Larry Summers:..Fed using 2020 framework and has not done enough to preserve its reputation if inflation continues to be high—wage inflation is getting close to 7%. What do we need to get inflation rates)They assume 2.4 % long term inflation—this whole calculation assumes we will get the inflation down to 2%–we are almost certainly a 6% inflation country so we have to raise interest rates to between 4-5%–We cannot count on the transitory inflation view. Brazil bans telegram for its “fake news”. Belgium to extend life of nuclear reactors for another decade.

Euronews. Syrian: anti Assad, anti-Russian demonstrations in Syria…… The Russian cosmonauts arriving in the International space station arrived in Ukrainian colours. Poland PM calls for tougher sanctions on Russia. Chinese official says Nato is a cold war “vestige”..

BBC 100 Russian owned planes grounded in US including Abramovic’s luxury jet

CNN Congressman Adam Smith:–Putins campaign is deliberately and criminally directed against civilians. The campaign in the beginning was poorly organised and has stalled….the Syrian pattern. China is in a bind: China and Russia have a common goal–bring down the West but they also want to make friends in Africa etc so if China is seen to be backing this brutal war their friends may back off. Poroshenko asks Biden to visit Kiev. Biden to travel to Brussels next week to attend European Council and G7 leaders. Boris Johnson:–Putin is in total panic at the moment because he is fearing a domestic uprising. Wolf Blitzer—Will mothers of dead soldiers affect Putin? They affected the authorities in the Tchechen and Afghan wars when losses were far lower per day than they are in Ukraine.

BBC Hypersonic missiles used in Ukraine on underground storage areas yesterday can be launched at long range—Southern Russia–no chance of defending against them. 11 million people in Russia have relatives in Ukraine. Beijing has continued to buy Russian oil and gas. Theresa Fallon: China are trying to sit on the fence but this is becoming more difficult. Do not support sanctions and repeating Russian propaganda indicates their likely final decision.

Sunday 25th day of the war

BBC UK defence intelligence report: Russia have failed to take control of the air. ….The Russians have failed to achieve their objectives on the ground but still have considerable reserve artillery strength. The international war tribunal called for by Gordon Brown and John Major will not prosecute for war crimes but rater for a war of aggression which is illegal in both the constitutions of Ukraine and Russia–other countries can join the effort and if so it will have international reach. Mariupol citizens being forced to travel to Russia. Russians have refused to allow Humanitarian corridors leading into the Ukraine and bomb or shoot those civilians attempting to fell to Ukraine.

CNN WHO concerned about medical facilities being destroyed in the war. Japanese high level political exchange between Japan and india: Japan claimed that the war on Ukraine is destabilising the whole international order”: India has not condemned the war, avoided commenting and merely claimed that the situation presents “new challenges”….Putin indicates he is not ready to meet Zelinsky. ……….Michael Bociurkiw from Atlantic Council how long will the West stand by and watch civilians slaughtered every day before saying enough is enough. People looking forward to post war Ukraine—Aaron David Miller. Reports of Russians self mutilating to escape the war…. Chinese vice foreign minister—“Sanctions on Russia outrageous”–” will have disastrous consequences for the world” Squad 303 provides a hackers platform that encourages sms messages to Russians giving them correct info about the war one activist claims to have sent 6000 messages thus far.. Movement of civilian population from Mariupol is a war crime–not clear whether this is a decision by a local commander or something we might see more of. Linda Thomas Greenfield US ambassador to UN Jake Tapper: In the conversation with XI Biden was told “he who ties the bell t the tiger has to remove it” in response to peace talks requests. Biden made very clear the costs for China of cooperating with Russia –aiding and assisting sanctions avoidance.Anne Applebaum Atlantic: believes that Ukraine can win this war. ….Reporter cannot understand why the west are so passive and confused over what to do about the mounting number of war crimes. Tiktok spreading Russian disinformation about the war. Estonian PM: Putins wider intention with this attack is to create a massive wave of migration to Europe so that the right wing movements he has been nurturing both there and in the US will divide the countries and make them powerless to combat the Russian threat. We must continue to see who the real enemy of Europe is. We in Estonia will be increasing our military spending to 2.5 % but there has to be more cooperation with the surrounding countries because even these amounts are not sufficient for the complex technologically advanced kind of air -defences we need. Gen Petraeus Russians have 100,000 in theatre and the Ukrainians have double that if we include those who have taken up arms to defend their homes. Urban warfare of street to street building to building fighting is occurring in Mariupol. Odessa is the prize but this attack is on hold. Five Russian Generals killed is this common–very senior generals have been killed the Ukrainians have jammed Russian communications forcing the Generals to to leave their vehicles to give orders( The troops need to be told what to do) —the Ukrainians snipers are very good and are picking them off—-4 generals have been confirmed by US intelligence the fifth confirmation is probably coming today—one Us general killed throughout the entire Afghan war.

Sky–Russians bombed an art school where 400 residents were sheltering.(Mariupol City council) still waiting for information on casualties.

BBC Lord Browne did you anticipate this crisis–Yes when I was dealing with Putin they needed us to modernise their industry–was it a mistake to rely on Russia—- Churchill —“the only recipe for security is diversity” we over relied on Russia–Russian gas has been flowing into the west since the early 90’s and not the energy is being used as sword against the west. It is difficult to take oil out of the equation but can be done but gas is more difficult because it comes through a pipeline. Ten million people displaced from homes. Thousands of Ukrainians taken across the border against their will to Russia–some placed in camps. Russians living in Mariupol claim that Putins actions have converted them into Ukrainians. Ukraine Prosecutor: 112 children killed so far. Glen Grant British Army Lt Colonel: Russians have been fought to a standstill in many places–run out of fuel–pushed back in many places—old missiles are being used–sometimes they explode sometimes they do not. Soviet culture all the soldiers are frightened Generals are second rate—making bad decisions and training is second rate conscripts do not want to fight..Putin has pulled troops from Armenia and Georgia until they enter the stalemate will continue and it is not clear what difference they will make—If the Ukrainians could be given air defence weapons Putin would be in trouble. Anonymous hacked into Russian media and showed a 12 minute video with facts about the war. Zelensky quotes Golda Meier to the Israeli Knesset: “We want to live–our neighbours want us dead. We remain” Russian troops opened fire on elderly nursing home with 56 elderly in residence died.

Euronews: Albania considering NATO base. Zelensky announces a ban on 11 political parties thought to be connected to Russia. Boris J The west should never again normalise relations with Putin. Zelensky criticised Israel for not providing any military support— “you cannot remain neutral between good and evil”

Aljazeera Turkish PM says both sides are getting closer together on critical issues. Kharkiev reduced to rubble by Russian bombing

Sky: Mariupol: survivors cannot be extracted from theatre or art school rubble. Kherson: taken by Russians–Video–Ukrainians are confronting armed troops every day–not behaving like they are occupied..

SVT IT Army of Ukraine: Hackers have closed over 150 Russian web sites. 13 Nato war vessels pass Stockholm.

Monday 25th day of war

BBC PM of Kosova criticises Lavrovs comment relating to the bombing and invasion of Serbia. 19 countries witnessed the mass murder , mass rape and deportation of civilian populations by the Serbs and agreed to the bombing and the invasion. Russia is the aggressor here and has no right to invoke an international action in support of what he is doing. As to the accusation of airplanes being provided to Ukraine from Kosova the PM claimed these accusations are false but everyone must help Ukraine to the full limit of their capacity within the guidelines set out by the international community. We ought to push politicians do more on the sanctions front including oil and gas.

Bloomberg: Moscow–progress on talks yielding less than we want. Latvias defence minister:– We must stand by Ukraine –Latvia are over 90% on Russian gas. Fast track for Ukraine in EU. No doubt that if Ukraine have not already won this war they are going to . They have nowhere to go and must fight and we must stand by them. Europe are going to have to pay for the reconstruction of the country so there is no reason to deny EU membership. We must increase the pressure on Putin and stand up against this war of aggression. A quarter of the population of Ukraine have been displaced. EU is considering a Russian oil embargo when they meet this week.

Euronews military asking citizens to bury the bodies of Russian bodies. Russians were shipping their bodies to Belarus. This seems to have changed.

Sky more residential bombings again last night–even holiday homes on the beach front are being flattened by naval bombardment.

CNN Biden on telephone call with UK ,Italy, France, Germany in preparation for meeting in Brussels Moscow stock exchange opened today with trade only in Rubles “US Russia relation on the verge of rupture”. Shopping centre flattened in a residential area. Russian response–a rocket was hidden in the centre. Consensus amongst most of EU’s Foreign ministers that War crimes are being committed on an almost daily basis. Christine Amanpour: Elderly Survivors of Mariupol report that civilians are systematically murdered everyday and that this did not happen with the German fascists. One elderly survivor claimed that theRussians are too afraid to fight the Ukrainian army and are going after “softer” targets. We do not even now yet how many people died or ate buried under the rubble in the theatre and the art school. Mariupol strategically important for the Russians to create a corridor along the border. Putin is counting on surrender and suffering incredible losses whilst he is waiting. Russian army had logistics and communication problems in Georgia and they do not seemed to have learned anything since then. Plan B for the Russians in Syria when roughly the same problems occurred ,was chemical weapons. A Humanitarian no fly zone requires agreement from both sides. If there is a genocide we cannot just sit and watch there will be forced engagement. If we lose in Ukraine he will go for Georgia and Moldovia and then challenge NATO. He must be stopped in Ukraine and we should not be over fearful of a nuclear war. Disappointed in UN 141 countries have condemned Russia–Nato should call on the UN to do something perhaps peace keeping forces. Evelyn…. Obama administration foreign affairs advisor. Curfew for 36 hours starting this evening in Kiev.

Aljazeera Assad visits the UAE and Arab political scientist is interviewed and claims that they know that the US is upset about this but not half as upset as the Arab world were when Obama failed to respond to the systematic annihilation of the Syrians and the chemical attack that was supposed to have crossed a red line. Assad is not going anywhere and we have millions of Syrian refugees that have to be repatriated back to Syria. Russia is a major part of Opec which is not a political organisation but an economic organisation. Fredrico –Human Rights Watch: ICC is investigating war crimes and 6 countries have so far signed up in support.

Euronews extra 500 million euros for lethal arms aid to Ukraine. Talk about a rapid response military unit.—5000 troops

CNN Minister turned soldier—“democracies always win in the end” Russians have been pushed back in Kiev. Supplies are still getting into Kiev:– most routes to the east are open most routes to the south are open. Biden warns of an imminent cyberattack on the US.

BBC:– Small arms fire and heavy machine fire heard just before sundown. Street fighting close to the centre? Do not know—Russian saboteurs? Is this the reason for the curfew. Last time the curfew was connected with a counteroffensive. Biden phone call: readout—brutal attacks on Ukraine–negotiations for cease fire– discussed meeting in Brussels. Can the West go further on the sanctions front? more sanctions on the oligarchs different kinds of energy sanctions are being discussed. US press secretary claimed there would be some real deliverables from the Brussels trip.

Tuesday 26th day of the war

CNN Over 2000 children removed from the Donetsk region by the Russians and no one knows where they are–Ukrainian MP. Diplomacy is not a possible alternative in the light of such events. 96 year old holocaust survivor killed in Bombing of Kharviev. Navalny found guilty of fraud prosecution seeking 13 years of prison in a maximum security prison making it impossible to contact him.

BBC Hardtalk Putins Russia has woken democracy up from its slumbers. No longer struggle between left and right but between dictatorships and liberal democracies. Populist leaders who expressed support for Putin have been forced to retreat and have been weakened. We liberal democrats have become too complacent. Germans movement toward Russia was the weak point of our European alliance.

CNN Markariv(NW of Kiev) retaken by Ukrainian forces making it more difficult for Russian forces to surround Kiev.

Bloomberg Diesel shortage next energy shock as supply dwindles from Russia. Reduction of 2-2and a half million barrels per day less. Bit coin looks as if it is being used to circumvent sanctions. Anna Wong: the bottom end of the wage market are doing ok at current levels of inflation but a significant increase would make life problematic for them given the fact that a large proportion of their wages go to energy and commodities.

Euronews Biden warns about cyberattacks on businesses and utilities. Man playing balalaika whilst air raid signals sound.. Euronews banned from Russia. Bidens trip to Brussels regarded as the most important trip of his presidency. Biden will visit Poland

BBC WHO accuse Russians of targeting more than 60 health care institutions UN Gen Sec “Its time to end this war”. This war is morally unacceptable. Zelensky speech to Italian Parliament–Ukrainian MP we are all in for the victory. Do you have a say in decisions. Martial law The President runs the country but there are laws dealing with civilian laws and these are up to Parliament to decide. Usmanov: Russian oligarch ditched all his expensive mansions before the sanctions became effective—-shifted off to a trust that has connections to Usmanov. Ukraine accuses Russia of blocking humanitarian help for Kherson. Almost 1000 buildings in Kharkiev destroyed. Brussels meeting is partly to determine what Chinas relation to Russia.. Probably no sanctions for China? How will te EU respond if China helps Russia. Pireaus the biggest Greek port owned by China. Joke It has been said that Russia has the second best army in the world—we have found out that they are the second best army in Ukraine. Sanctions are not foolproof. It looks as if they have hidden billions of dollars to store foreign currency assets in off share accounts—China might be helping them in this.

Wednesday 28th day of war

SVT reports that Russian troops have captured 15 aid workers around Mariupol. Warnings for the use of chemical/biological weapons. The claim that all their weapons were destroyed are repeated again but the same claim was made when Novachock was used to poison Navalya.

Bloomberg–We will not know what shape Russian banks are in until the stock market opens. The awkwardness of the moral question is what is pushing major western actors out of Russia. 100,000 remain trapped in Mariupol Trader King clams that oil will hit 150 dollars per barrel later this year.

Euronews The EU meetings purpose is not just to announce new sanctions but to decide what to do about countries that violate sanctions.

CNN Josh Rogin Political analyst Putin has been a war criminal for years we are seeing exactly the same behaviour over and over again Syria, Georgia etc . Perhaps there is now the will to do something about it but it requires a lot of evidence gathering under expert legal supervision. Stoltenberg: Chemical weapon-use will be unacceptable and have far reaching consequences. China is assisting the Russian war effort through helping to spread lies about the full scale invasion. They should join the rest of the world and condemn the invasion of an independent country in accordance with the values of the UN. Putin miscalculated insofar as the unity of the US and EU. European Council. The world must not allow Putin to win this war. Amanpour: Plan B is in operation: namely acquiring gas and oil from other sources. This is the turning point for renewables. One suggestion that is being discussed is that one pay for the oil by putting the money into a special account so Putin cannot benefit. Interview with help worker from “Dynamo”: humanitarian corridors are death traps and requires extraordinary “rescue work”. This is like a natural disaster : There are areas that look like Haiti after the earthquake–but I have never been ina war where the civilians have been most at risk. It is this targeting that allows “Dynamo” to engage in daring rescue attempts to for example rescue the babies. Dynamo has engaged in “ops” every day and we need money. Hit the donate button.Tass: Chubais —long standing Russian govt insider quits.Leak to news agencies including Russian news .He is against the war and has left Russia(one of “the gnats that Putin is going to spit out?”) Many of the figures surrounding Putin have had their assets frozen.

CNN Tim Ash Bluebay No energy sanctions but nobody wants to do business with Russia whether it is to do with products on the sanctions list or not. Moscow stock market may open partially tomorrow—Russia have a couple of hundred billion not frozen by sanctions but we are probably looking at a default around mid April. If that happens no one from the West will want to do any form of business with Russia for a decade. We have to take this opportunity to concentrate on renewables. In the short term it is going to be expensive but that is the cost of freedom. Biden admin formally accusing members of Russian forces of war crimes on the basis of public evidence and intelligence evidence—(Blinken)… Irpin 80% recaptured by Ukrainians. Are the Russians merely regrouping? Meeting between a Russian general and US embassy personnel in moscow–Gen Ilyen was angry and flushed when the special military op was mentioned and claimed it was tragic and he was depressed about it–walking out with shaking hands. Do morale depletion problems reach up the chain to the top? Wolf Blitzer reports that Nato now claim that as many as 15,000 Russians have died in the war(30-40,000 taken out of battle because of death and casualties. Many Russian companies are decimated). Biden lands in Brussels 2200 CET—4 new divisions created for deployment on Nato’s eastern front–Biden to slap sanctions on hundreds of members of Russian parliament. Marc Warner Chairman of Intelligence Committee: Ensure the rapid flow of military material to Ukraine. Russia refuse to rule out the use of nuclear weapons. His threats puts everybody in uncharted territory. When the coffins and body bags and injured begin coming home and the pow’s dont come home, we will see what happens. This figure of 30,000-40,000 falling into these categories is a figure beyond everyones expectations but is close to the truth.

BBC Christopher Steel Intelligence expert(MI6) Russians do not have the means to achieve their objective in Ukraine. We need to understand the mind set of Putin .What are your contacts in Russia telling you–Many were surprised at the aggression. FSB humiliated publicly—In an authoritarion dictatorial system info des not flow freely–the idea that there was a shadow government waiting in the Ukraine to take over was probably known in intelligence services. Where does this end—in failure for Putin He went for the biggest all in options many did not foresee this simply because they simply dont have the means. This will end in agreement and Putin will eventually be removed. How do you deal wit P when he has his finger on the nuclear button. We cannot carry on doing what we are doing today with the risk of more extreme behaviour increasing every day. The documents submitted by Russia to Nato to sign was not just about Ukraine but about Nato pulling back and USA getting out. We are not going to fight Russia in Ukraine is just what Putin wants to hear. CS—I dont take the nuclear threat seriously… Putin is more of a poker player than a chess player. We must use sanctions and our ability to communicate with people about our values. His forces are poorly organised and are poorly motivated. What if Belarus join?

Thursday 29th day of war

Bloomberg Stock ex opening foreign share holders not allowed to sell–only 33 stocks allowed to trade central support of equities–up 8% immediately at opening and declining to +5.5% by 10.30(Sberbank now only 3.5% plus). Aeroflot stocks down…..N Korea launches first ICBM. Nabiullina–head of central bank— wanted to resign –Putin denied the request…. Apparently Russia is demanding payment in rubles for its gas. The contract is dollars/euros. Will Germany break sanctions and pay in Rubles.If not the gas is shut off and according to Scholz hundreds of thousands of jobs will be lost in Germany. Health care sector under pressure—–semiconductor stocks up… UK announces sanctions agains Alfa Bank JSC in Russia amongst 65 other targets……Need to redesign economic liberalism—need to perhaps sacrifice national security and make trade deals in Asia—John Micklewaite Bloomberg editor…. Germany lowering tax on energy and giving 300 euro subsidy to households. Severstal steel —first Russian firm—failed to pay coupon on its debt after 5 day grace period—-steel not covered by US sanctions but one of the individual owners is on a EU sanctions list.—is this a default? Ramaphosa(South Africas President) defends its “neutrality” stance on war—has failed to condemn war and is in talks with Putin. Major trading partner= China. Chinese envoy claims that the limits of the relation between China and Russia runs via the UN and respect for International law. Citigroup say that interest rates at end of year could be as high as 3%(market prediction 1.75-2%) Maerk shipping claims it will not touch cargoes of Russian oil. 6 billion dollars of Russian assets found in Switzerland. Finland impounds 21 yachts whilst investigating their ownership.

CNN Berdyansk—-Large Russian landing ship destroyed by Ukrainians…..secondary explosions. Ukrainian army have ca 10,000 Russian troops surrounded just East of Kiev. They are cut off from their supplies because key routes were flooded by opening a dam. Lt Gen Mark Hertling. Ship explosion will significantly affect logistics. Michael Bociurkiw Atlantic Council Senior Fellow in Kieve—The tsunami of “help” from the West is experenced as a ripple here in Kiev, they feel they are largely on their own and that their women and children have to die in a proxy war for the West. The Territorial army go to the front in t-shirts and baseball caps to fight in this proxy war for Democracy. Zelensky has asked for 1% of Natos resources to help. Z asked for panes and tanks. Russia had used phosphorous weapons that have killed women and children(Zelinsky) –contravention of international law—unverified claim. one in two Ukrainian children have been displaced since Russia invaded.–independent claim. UK BJ Uk has sanctioned over 1000 individuals and entities and will add 65 more to this today including the banking sector. EU will announce a fifth sanction package tomorrow. Joe Biden US will take 100,000 refugees from Ukraine. US sanctioning 300 individuals from the Russian Duma and defence contract companies.

SVT Zelinsky speech to Swedish parliament spoke about how Russia openly discuss an invasion of Gotland on state television.

Friday 30th day of the war

Bloomberg–Partial opening of stock market today foreigners cannot sell their assets only 33 stocks and central support–Market up a few percent just after opening. Gas deal US and EU. Biden wants Russia expelled from G20.Diesel shortage in Europe. Transatlantic data transfer pact between US and EU(Von Der Leyen)

BBC Civilians abducted to Russia. Ukrainian. Priest shot at Russian checkpoint–war-crimes.Non confirmed witness report 300 people dead in Mariupol Theatre.Un Human Rights: in areas controlled by Russian forces forced 21 disappearances of local government officials have been documented , 15 journalists- aid workers have also “disappeared”: People who are more vocal in their opposition to the invasion are targeted. Population are terrorised by these disappearances. Ukraine needs 1000 missiles per day to protect itself. Russian troops in defensive positions around Kiev. OK MP Putin has been militarily defeated but Putin is living in his own “bubble” which needs to be burst by someone. Another Russian General is killed(7th). Mariupol–“none is going to surrender”

Euronews Georgian economy is affected by Russian sanctions–banks not affected.

Bloomberg: A Russian source says Donbas is the focus of the war.

BBC Dateline: Russian Journalist State media first began by saying that the military op was to eliminate nazis and in the course of this operation labs were discovered that were developing chemical biological weapons that will be spread by birds and bats and will affect the reproductive systems of women making them sterile.Putin must dominate in order to explain himself to himself and no one knows where this will lead. He falsely believes that the West is weak.Putin cannot use a nuclear weapon in China because Xi has given a guarantee to Ukraine in 2013 that this would not happen.

CNN European Council calls upon Russia to cease with war crimes immediately.Xi in pone call to Boris Johnson claimed that he will lay a constructive role in the peace process in Ukraine. Biden to the 82nd airborne: “You are the finest fighting force in the world”. “Putin is using the profits from his energy sales to drive his war machine”. Qatar will not divert natural gas from Europe out of “solidarity” . Russia is running low on cruise missiles.The massive attacks on hospital has seriously compromised health care in Ukraine–over 60 facilities have been deliberately targeted according to WHO. Freezing of central bank assets extremely efficient–Lagarde. Asking for payment in rubles is a result of the paralysis of the central bank by sanctions. Further sanctions from Switzerland on Russia. Australia sanctions Belarusian president. Japan imposed further sanctions on Russia. Ukrainian nautical engineer man tries to sink Ceo of arms company’s´ yacht “Lady Anastasia”–went back to Ukraine to fight. Lady Anastasia is provisionally seized by Spain. “The war we are seeing is a diversionary war to draw attention from the bleeding dry of wealth of Russia by the oligarchs”. Highly placed Russian general now claims that the major goal of this war was to liberate the Donbas region.

Saturday 31st day of the war

CNN Interview with escapees from Mariupol were ordered by Russian troops to delete all images of the destruction in the city–warned that if checkpoints found any images they would be “dealt with”. Interview with wife of man in Hospital :-Russians in villages move into peoples houses threaten them, steal their money one soldier got drunk and blasted a mans leg off with a shotgun. Two other soldiers who were against the war helped the women get her husband to a Ukrainian hospital.

BBC Survivor from Mariupol walked for 4 days to reach safety. I was outside when the shell hit. Tried to make my way inside to my dogs –could not get inside–hope they died instantly.

CNN Poland–Warsaw–Bidens speech on autocracy versus democracy and the long road we have travelled and the long road left to travel–references to the Polish Pope John Paul and Lech Walensa, Soviet aggression and the fall of the wall–addressed Russian people wishing the removal of Putin.. 200,000 Russians left the country. Kierkegaard on faith and hope was mentioned. Shortly before speech Russians launched cruise missile which hit fuel depot in Lviv 6 people injured.

Sunday 32nd day of war

Continued Discussion of Bidens speech Zylensky indicates preparedness to give up Donbas area after referendum. 3.8 million refugees left Ukraine

Monday 33rd day of war

CNN and Wall street Journal:—Confirmed symptoms of possible chemical “contamination” or poisoning of Abrahomovic(temporary loss of sight) and two Ukrainian peace negotiators at March 3-4 negotiations in Turkey. All three parties believe they were poisoned.

BBC investigative term have uncovered a pattern of co-presence at the same places at the same times of the opposition politician that was shot outside the Kremlin(Boris Nemtsov) and a known FSB agent believed to be responsible for other attempted assassinations. Irpin retaken by the Ukrainians—“flattened—a waste land”. Russian forces pushed back in the East as well. Ukrainians holding Russia at bay in the South. In Odessa pubs and restaurants are reopening. Along the black sea coast Russian hardware lies in ruins. Face to face talks scheduled to take place in Turkey this week.

Wednesday 35th day of war

BBC Authorities have verified 3000 cases of civilian deaths due to indiscriminate shelling and missile strikes. Strikes on civilian facilities such as hospitals and schools and theatres have also been documented. This evidence is being collected with a view to presenting the evidence for war crime prosecutions. Chinese Russian meeting –China praised Russia from preventing a humanitarian catastrophe. Lavrov a new democratic order is emerging which will be led by Russia and China. Chine expressed desire to take its relation to a “higher level” Chatham House expert: Russia has certainly infringed the UN sovereign right commitment which China in the past has claimed to respect—-but since Ukraine is not of interest for China what is going on appears acceptable to them. Taiwan is also obviously on China’s mind. There is repositioning of the forces around Kiev but no movement away as promised two days ago.

Thursday 36th day of war

Bloomberg Biden claims that Putin has put advisers under house arrest. Troops seen leaving Chernobyl. Putin signed declaration claiming that unfriendly nations must pay for gas in rubles or the gas will be turned off April 1. Biden releasing one million barrels of oil per day for the next 6 months from storage system.

Sunday 38th day of War

Bucha mass graves discovered–mayor and family found shot and hidden in the woods after reports of having been kidnapped by the Russians–Russian initial response–1. The Russians were not there—2. the bodies are actors

Monday 39th day of the war

CNN Zelinsky visits Bucha and calls for international investigation. Biden calls for war crimes investigations and expulsion of Russia from UN’s Human Rights council. Russian response today–the bodies are real and the Russians have been in the area but the Ukrainians did this to their own people after the troops left Russian bond of 2 billion dollars due for payment today

BBC What are the chances of indicting Putin? Look at Serbia–What looked like an impossibility suddenly became possible. Three of the major criminals were indicted and tried. What has to happen is regime change. But Serbia became so weary of answering the international charges they eventually handed the people indicted over.

Tuesday 40th day of war

Sky Dr Michael Clark The West has seized over 300 billion dollars of Putins war chest in assets outside Russia. Action has been taken to prevent his realising his gold assets. Thinks that if the war does not go much better Putin will leave office in 2-3 years . E.g. if he is forced to settle for only the Crimea. This could be used for war reparations after a war crimes trial. ECB probably will not increase interest rates as quickly as the USA because of the influence of the War on Ukraine

Bloomberg Health Care stocks number 3 on winners list today

Wednesday 41st day of war

Bloomberg Lindsay Newman S & P Global: A total embargo on both oil and gas could be a game changer and result in Russia defaulting on loan debts Breugel: The moral case for a total embargo is overwhelming–we cannot continue importing for the sake of economic security when people are dying. We anticipate a recession if there is an embargo with a reduction of 3-5% f our GDP. This is not exactly a collapse of the economy but it will be painful. Russia trying to pay bonds in ruble at an artificial price created by the fact that the price of the ruble is determined in an artificial environment in which one cannot purchase other currencies with the ruble. 15-20% GDP contraction predicted for this year for Russia. A commission in England will determine the status of a technical default relating to 41 billion dollars missed earlier in March. If this is deemed a full default then money from the insurers must change hands and the flood gates will open insofar as the value of the ruble is concerned.

Tuesday 48th day of the war

Russian Railways bond default has caused the countries credit rating to sink from C to D(Default) which means that Russia will not be able to borrow money in the International Finance system for perhaps a decade or longer if there are more defaults as tere inevitably will be.

Thursday 50th day of the war

BBC Flagship of Black sea “Moscow” has been severely damaged and the crew evacuated. Russians say ammunition spontaneously combusted Ukrainians asy two missiles hit the vessel. The Uk recently sent missile systems capable of sinking oats to Ukraine.

BBC Hardtalk with Kremiln Economic adviser to Medvev up to 2012: Sergej Guriev who has written a book entitled “Spin dictatorships and Fear Dictatorships” SG argues that the war will continues until the West turn off the oil and gas which is providing the money to pay for the salaries of the army and the police. If this source of income was stopped neither the police nor the army could be paid. Inflation in Russia was increasing by 2% per week the first few weeks of the war and is now increasing at 1% per week —if the war continues for any length of time there will come a time when even the revenue from oil and gas will not suffice to keep pace with inflation. Putin is not popular in Russia– prior to the last election and also prior to the beginning of the war his rating was 30% but miraculously this percentage increased to 50 % in the election which also mysteriously gave Putin 70% of the seats in the Duma. Putin really thought his war would be a blitzkrieg and he finds himself in a difficult position now and is forced to use fear and terror as well as spin to control the dialogue and the tension in the country. This war was started because of Putins low popularity. Interviewer: But the sanctions are not having the desired effect yet again because the Ruble is back to pre war levels. Is Putin not winning the economic war? SG:–No these sanctions are different to the earlier ones because Russia has experienced integration into the world economic system and the isolation that will result will take Russia back 30 years in time. Almost every complex product involves a number of countries to produce. Russia will not be able to produce cars or planes . The only reason the ruble is strong is because Russia is importing nothing because of existing capital controls. It cannot exchange for dollars or euros–this strength is artificial. Sanctions are biting but it is possible that the West will decide at some point soon to include energy in the sanctions.

Friday 51st day of war

Michael Holmes BBC predicted GDP shrinkage between 8-15% Vladimir Milov: Opposition Russian part–fled to Lithuania last year for fear of his life. Sugar which people use to make vodka is in short supply but there is more to come and the worst is yet to come–we have not seen what we are seeing now for 30 years—we will see real shortages in April to June–living standards will seriously deteriorate 2020 the average Russian 11% less to spend than the previous year: 2 million jobs under threat in the near future a few weeks or several months and 2 million jobs may be an understatement–small businesses are on the verge of destruction. The situation is worse than the 90’s because of the coming isolation.Andrei Illianov—The Ukraine is more important to Putin than his own poor people and living standards. This war will double the number of poor people against a background of Putin’s promise in 2020 of cutting the number of people in half. An oil and gas embargo would mean that the war would have to be stopped in two months.

Saturday 52nd day of war

BBC Dateline–Putin baptised as a boy–the Hierarchy of the Russian Orthodox Church claim the war on Ukraine to be Holy war. Priests blessed the bombs used in Syria. The “Moscow” has what Tass called a piece of the “true” cross embedded in the gold cross on board—now at the bottom of the sea. Pope may visit Kirill–Pope Francis went to the Russian embassy to voice his opposition to what is going on in the war.